TechLahore

Exactly a year ago, I published a list of economic, IT and political predictions for 2008. I guess I didn’t do very badly, but where I was wrong, it was due to my optimism. But then, 2008 has been a pretty tough year for almost the entire world. Plenty of surprising, unsettling things happened and I, for one, am happy its over!

Here’s the scorecard for last year’s predictions:

1. Macroeconomic Predictions
   1. GDP growth for next year will be around 5%, plus or minus .5%. (I hit this one – GDP growth for 07-08 was 5.78%)
      
   2. The KSE will hit 15,000 in 2008. (It did – it went above – and then tanked along with the rest of the world’s markets)
   3. The Pak Rs. will exchange between 60 and 63 to US $1 through 2008. (WRONG! The Dollar is now close to Rs. 79)
2. Predictions about the Local Industry
   1. There will be a change of leadership at the PITB or the PSEB (at least one of the two) in 2008. (I got this one – both of them are no longer)
   2. PTCL will continue to lose landline customers in 2008; financial problems will continue especially during Q1 and Q2 ‘08. (This happened too… )
   3. The Punjab IT STP Tower will not be completed in time; it will be delayed by at least 3 months. (I am sorry to have been right on this one. It’s delayed, and by much more than 3 months. The latest review done under Shahbaz Sharif’s leadership suggests that it completion might be a year away)
   4. WiMax will not be much of a success for Wateen in 2008; consumers will find it too expensive and corporations will stick mostly to wired broadband. Coverage will not be wide enough to truly benefit remote industry operations that don’t have wired broadband access readily. (Yup, got this one if I judge it subjectively… if someone has hard numbers that suggest otherwise, I would be happy to be proved wrong)
   5. NetSol stock will not close at or above $4.50 for 10 consecutive trading sessions in 2008. (Ha! Yeah, I suppose I was right on this one too, but I did not foresee Netsol becoming a penny stock… which it is right now. It’s trading at 60 some cents)
   6. 2008 will be an excellent year for Media Companies in Pakistan; they will see increased freedom, a growing viewership and an increased global footprint. As a corollary, Wordcall stock will rise at least 15% in 2008. (Worldcall was actually up more than 20% between Jan 1 and the March-April timeframe… until the bulls hit the KSE – I was kind of half right/half wrong on this)
   7. 2008 will be the beginning of the end for dialup ISPs. As PTCL loses fixed line subscribers, WLL connections and broadband will become methods of choice for Internet access. Dialup user growth rates will slow in 2008 and the reversal will set in during 2009-2010. (Anybody disagree? I think this did happen)
   8. Power companies, professional services companies dealing with power and local power generation equipment manufacturers will see tremendous growth; electricity shortages will persist through 2008, but the situation will begin to remedy itself in early 2009. Shortages will propel the alternative energy and Natural Gas (CNG) based generator industry.  (Electricity shortages did persist, though the situation improved in mid-late ’08. It is becoming severe yet again, but with the 1 Gigawatt energy deal that was just signed with Iran, I do think things are about to get better…)
   9. Software licenses will be strongly enforced; it will be virtually impossible for any company with 40+ employees to not comply with licensing – in particular Microsoft licensing. This will drive some increased Linux adoption, but not in any significant measure. (Yes, this happened too… people were arrested in Lahore for software piracy…)
3. Political Predictions
   1. The PPP and allies will form the next government in Pakistan (Sigh. Yes, right on this one)
   2. Pakistan will have a new President in 2008, or at most, by the first quarter of 2009 (Double Sigh. This one too)
   3. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and will win the 2008 election in the US (WRONG! Welcome to Obamanation! We’ll see how Obama turns out for the US, and more importantly, for the rest of the world)

SCORE: 12.5 out of 14, or 89%. Unless you have me on a curve, that’s pretty much a B!! I’ll try to do better next year, but not at the expense of my optimism!!

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