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The Old Building at Aitchison: Once called the "Chief's College", Aitchison is still an elite institution. Its students - future leaders of Pakistan - are increasingly turning away from the US.

I am an Aitchisonian, and proud of it. While it has been criticised for being an elitist institution, Aitchison has certainly produced leaders. Whether they be sportsmen like Imran Khan and Ramiz Raja, politicians like Farooq Leghari (former President of Pakistan), Balakh Sher Mazari (former Prime Minister) and Nawab Amir Muhammad Khan of Kalabagh (Governor), martyrs in our wars such as Lt. Col. Zafar Shinwari and Maj. Shah Rafi Alam or businessmen like Syed Babar Ali and Shahzada Monnoo, Aitchisonians are and have always been undoubtedly at the forefront of all segments of society. And because Aitchison is the cradle for a substantial part of Pakistan’s leadership, trends amongst its students are an interesting indicator of where Pakistan is headed, or at least what social trends are shaping its elite.

I left the school many years ago, in the 90s. At the time, students from a typical graduating H.Sc. (A’ Level – or the “13th” grade for our American readership) class mostly went abroad to pursue further education. Most of them had large land holdings, or family businesses to return to, so the few years spent abroad were a way to travel, get to know the world a bit better and develop a sense of independence before the eventual homecoming.

By far, the most popular destination for these students through the 70s, 80s and 90s was the US. Harvard, MIT, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, UT Austin, Northwestern and Rice were a few of the schools favoured by Aitchisonians. These Pakistani kids, almost exclusively from elite backgrounds, at an impressionable 17 or 18 years would depart to spend between 4 and 6 years in the US. During this time, these Aitchisonians didn’t just work towards higher degrees, they also experienced American college life, developed a sense of association with America and usually came back with good things to say about their experience. And when these kids went on to become industrialists, politicians, Army officers or leaders in other walks of life, they carried this favourable sentiment towards America with them.

The circumstances during much of the 20th century were such that living in a “friendly” America for a few years, conveniently obtaining visas and travelling there, and generally feeling comfortable in most American cities, was the usual experience for this highbrow elite. What they gained from their time in the US was a degree and a life experience. What America gained was powerful allies in a nuclear armed nation that is one of the most influential in the muslim world and also happens to be the sixth most populous state on earth.

Since 9/11, though, the US beauracracy and leadership has been like a turtle. Rather than understand the underlying issues, they have chosen to hide themselves behind a (series of) hard shell(s). While books can be and have been written about how these measures are unlikely to make America safer, and how the post 9/11 reaction that America exhibited has actually created larger armies of hardliners and potential terrorists in many countries of the world, let’s overlook that side of the debate for now. What is certainly clear is that by its extremely aggressive and, at times, clearly illogical and nonsensical policies, the US government has alienated its friends. In large numbers.

In fact, today, because of these US policies, Pakistanis who America would most want on their side, who America would most want to win over – the influential, powerful elite – are unwilling to even apply for an American visa for a summer vacation. With their money and influence, they can go anywhere on earth to enjoy themselves, to educate their children, to buy real estate or make investments. Why would they do so in a post 9/11 America that has shown too much insularity and insecurity, and very little understanding and acumen?

Looking at the list of schools to which the graduating  class of Aitchisonians is headed, one can confirm this trend. While a few students are still going to the US, the numbers have diminished drastically. What used to be 80%, is now a mere 20%.

Interestingly, those staying back in Pakistan and attending new, but immensely progressive and excellent  local universities like GIK Institute and NUST have increased in numbers from what used to be virtually zero in 1990, to a good 20% of the graduating class today. England, despite the train bombing episodes, has managed to be fairly even keel about visas, ease of travel and has managed to stay away from draconian steps such as implementing a “Patriot Act”, ala America. This more balanced reaction has allowed the UK to maintain – despite having a much smaller number of Universities to choose from – continued interest from the Pakistani elite.

Where do Aitchisonians go for higher education after they graduate? Not where they used to.

As you can see from the 2009 data above, almost a quarter of the Aitchison College H.Sc. graduating class stayed behind in Pakistan and chose to attend the country’s own elite universities. Frankly, I can’t remember any time during the 80s or 90s when this happened. Also, the US is now getting only 20% of Aitchison’s graduating class whereas it used to be the destination of choice for something between 65-80% of Aitchisonians. Canada and Germany have been huge gainers, because they are seen to be “friendly” and more relaxed.

So, what does all of this mean? For Pakistan it certainly means good things. First, by staying back, the most highbrow Pakistanis are stamping recently created local institutions of higher learning with their approval. Second, because these local schools are now providing education for the rich and powerful, they will also receive a lot more attention from this influential segment of society. Third, by heading for new destinations such as Canada and Germany, Aitchisonians are undoubtedly creating networks in those countries which will be beneficial to them and to Pakistan, in the form of business alliances, political liaisons and more.

However, this trend does not bode well for the US. Not only is it losing an opportunity to shape the future leaders of Pakistan, it is also increasingly seen as an unfriendly, harsh and arbitrary actor. You never know when you’ll get your visa stamped. It could be weeks, or it could be a year. You never know when some ill-trained, racist, angry-at-the-world type immigration officer will abuse the significant powers at his disposal to ruin your week. You never know when the next burst of anti Pakistan propaganda will hit the NYT or make the Fox/CNN airwaves. It’s all very disconcerting and uncomfortable, especially for Pakistanis who lead a life of privelege and couldn’t care two hoots for the economic opportunity American once represented.

By the way, while I have used Aitchison as a case study here, I know for a fact that trends at most other elite institutions in Pakistan are quite similar. America is out – or “tired” to use Wired magazine terminology. While Pakistan, Canada and Europe are in and most certainly, “wired”.

Of course, one has to wait for the myriad consequences of this significant shift to manifest themselves in public, inter-governmental and business affairs. In the next 5-10 years, as the post 9/11 generation of the Pakistani elite works itself into positions of power, what they see as a closed, unreasonable and biased America may no longer be automatically assumed to be a friend or even a desireable place, much less a country to be emulated or a beacon of freedom or democracy

Change is certainly afoot. The unintended consequences of the Bush reaction to 9/11 continue to unravel. Time will tell where things end up. From what I can see, America is causing itself more harm than its enemies ever could.

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