The brand new Islamabad Stock Exchange building (Photo credit: NNI)

The brand new Islamabad Stock Exchange building (Photo credit: NNI)

The KSE’s experienced some ups and downs lately. Perhaps not as extreme as the Dow rollercoaster, but ups and downs nonetheless. It’s good to see there’s some positive movement now and there’s been a consistent recovery from the dip we saw a couple of months ago. The run-up has allowed the index to comfortably cross the 10,000 mark. The index stands at 10,187 pts on July 14th, 2010. The last time we covered the index was at this level was back in April when the market had breached the 10,500 pt barrier.

So where does the index go from here? This is a tough one to call because there’s just way too many variables in play these days. My personal opinion is that the index will remain rangebound in the 9,600-10,800 point range for a while. There will need to be some exceptionally good news to move it beyond this level. There has been a flurry of good economic news recently, for example, the export targets being met, the forex remittances hitting an all-time high, reserves hitting an all-time high and power generation projects coming on line. There’s no doubt that an alleviation of the power crisis will definitely spur industry and there’s a very good chance that these effects will become visible in the next 9-18 months given the maturation of projects currently in play.

So, net-net, good news for now! We’ll probably stay under 11K pts for the next couple of months and beyond that there’s a good chance that positive movement continues as long as the news stays good and there isn’t a recurrence of the global meltdown. That last piece, by the way, is far from an unlikely event given the recent indications that the US economic recovery is stuttering now that the bailout monies are dissipating.

We’ll watch the KSE here and see how things progress. Stay tuned!

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