I’m travelling in the US on business and one of the things I’ve been pretty impressed with is how great my remote desktop connections with my office in Lahore have been from pretty much every US city I’ve visited. I’ve been regularly pulling down large (multi-gig) files stored on our servers in Lahore and also conducting latency sensitive remote control practically on a daily basis. It’s not just the bandwidth, but also the relatively low latency (considering that I’m connecting to the other end of the planet) that makes things work well. Since there is so much software and IT outsourcing now happening from the US to Pakistan, I decided I would try to measure the quality of connectivity between the two countries and compare it with another outsourcing destination, for example, India. Here are my results:

US-India network connectivity is fairly poor when compared to US-Pakistan internet connections

US-Pakistan connectivity is actually pretty good and should be leveraged by Pakistani MSPs, call centers and other bandwidth-sensitive outsourcers

Comparison

Download from Islamabad: 4.27Mbps
Download from New Delhi: 1.69Mbps
US-Pakistan connectivity 252% faster than US-India connectivity

Latency to Islamabad: 282ms
Latency to New Delhi: 345ms
US-Pakistan connectivity 22% better than US-India connectivity

Upload to Islamabad: 700Kbps
Upload to New Delhi: 720Kbps
US-Pakistan upload connectivity within 2% of US-India upload connectivity (within margin of error for test)

In general, Pakistan has been way ahead of the curve in connectivity as far as the South Asian region is concerned, and in many cases, at a global level. We covered Pakistan’s appearance on the WiMAX stage and its buildout of what was the world’s largest WiMax network at the time. Similarly, tele-density in Pakistan has been higher than in India, while the cost of bandwidth has been cheaper and the amount of bandwidth available has been greater. Just recently, the PTCL announced 50Mbps connections for Pakistani home and office subscribers, which is a tremendous step forward that will enable a whole slew of new and differentiated services.

So, in a nutshell, if you’re looking at outsourcing to an Asian destination and bandwidth is a consideration, Pakistan seems to be a better option at the moment. Examples of scenarios where this can really impact productivity include MSP (Managed Service Provider) models where companies in the US outsource much of their IT management to an overseas center. Another example, of course, would be BPO activities which involve latency-sensitive communications such as call center or helpdesk/remote control connectivity. Pakistani companies should be aware of these differences and should use them to their advantage whenever possible.

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An Exciting Future! While we won't quite get all the way here in 2011, things will start falling into place.

I just have a good feeling about 2011. I think it’s going to be a great year. I’ve thought a lot about where the optimism is coming from, and I don’t think it’s all subjective. Very important things happened in 2010, such as the incredibly pivotal visit by the Chinese Premier to Pakistan, Pakistan’s establishment drawing a very clear line with respect to interests it is not willing to compromise, wonderful progress with important programs like the JF-17, the arrival of product-focused Pakistani software companies like Pepper.pk who “ruled the world” with their #1 BlackBerry application, the rapid implementation of That Coal projects under the able leadership of Dr. Samar Mubarakmand and much else.

And in addition to all these things there’s the visible progress one can see unfolding in our cities. For example, with a hundred kilometers of brand spanking new, 6-lane highways (The Ring Road) in Lahore, commuting across the city in 2010 was so much easier than in 2009. New services like Qubee, added to the competition on the broadband side and Pakistan’s cellular market continued to grow with near 100M cell phones now in use in the country. To put things in perspective, that’s more cell phones than the number of people living in the UK and Italy put together!

Also, in defence of my optimism, I have to say that I haven’t fared badly with my predictions in the past. That’s not to say I couldn’t be off for 2011, but here’s a glimpse into the past:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010

2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009

3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

With that prelude, let’s get to it. Here is how I see 2011 unfolding:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

And there we have it. I’ll revisit some of these through the year as they prove to be false or true. Stay tuned, and more importantly, have an absolutely amazing 2011! Happy New Year!

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The Karachi Stock Exchange was a star performer this year, showing near 20% gains, twice the Nasdaq and Dow!

Back in December 2009, I had come up with a list of predictions for 2010. I may have gotten a little lucky this year, because many of these predictions were spot-on to an uncanny degree. Here’s how I fared:

Political predictions

I don’t see Asif Zardari making it through 2010. I think he will be deposed as President.

Couldn’t have been more wrong on this. And for the second time in a row. El Presidente has shown himself to be a better survivor than I am a Futurist!

Though many political pundits talk about it, I don’t believe there will be mid-term elections this year. Whatever changes occur will be with individual and will not displace the entire post-2008 election scenario.

And thus it happened. No mid term elections, even though last year many pundits were proclaiming that this was a near guaranteed event.

Gen. Kiyani is scheduled to retire close to the end of the year, but I believe he will receive a rare 1 year extension of service. However it happens, I don’t believe we will see him retiring this year.

This happened too. Though the extension he received was even more generous than I had thought. Gen. sahib will be at the helm of affairs for another 3 years.

The surge in Afghanistan will not work. If not by the end of 2010 then in 2011 the US will have to sit and talk to elements of the Taliban. The commitment of these forces will prove politically costly for President Obama.

Has this not happened to the letter? Now we have news of a Taliban office opening in Turkey which Mr. Karzai has already supported and in fact requested the Turkish Government for. And Pakistan has come out in support of this initiative as well. We all know that the discussions with the Taliban have been initiated by NATO and not from a position of strength.

Security and the situation in northwest Pakistan

As I had mentioned last year, the Army certainly had an operation up their sleeve. What happened in Swat and South Waziristan was the result of meticulous planning that had occured for months prior to the execution of either campaign. I believe these campaigns will begin to bear fruit in 2010 in the form of a reduction in security incidents in Pakistan. While there will be a definite tapering off in 2010, the nihilists will continue to make their presence felt now and then. Unfortunately this is a process which will take a little bit of time to completely unfold. But 2010 will inshaAllah be more secure than 2009 and quite measurably so.

There was a 35%  reduction in the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2010, as compared to 2009. The number of people who perished in these attacks was roughly the same, but that was due mainly to the terrorists no longer having the reach they once did. The number of attacks in major cities was also markedly reduced. As I said, the process of securing Pakistan in light of what is going on in Afghanistan will take some time, but certainly, 2010 was an improvement.

The military will continue significant presence in Swat, Waziristan and will expand into other tribal agencies, expanding the writ of the government in an area that was always free of federal or provincial law enforcement since 1947. The action being conducted in these areas is certainly against the foreign nihilists who have taken refuge there and those who would seek to support them, but it also marks an expansion of writ into areas where it never existed previously (by design and by a 1947 era agreement which has clearly outlived its relevance).

The gorgeous Pakistan-China Joint Fighter (JF-17) wowed crowds at Farnborough and Zhuhai

In fact, the only agency where the Army has not entered in force is North Waziristan. And there’s a lot behind that, so I’ll avoid the urge to take that segue. The homes of Taliban terrorists have been converted to Girls’ Schools in the FATA area and the writ of the Government has been extended to areas that no central government has ever controlled in hundreds of years.

Pakistan will continue to implement its strategic weapons programs and reap the fruits of investment in tactical weapons development. In addition to the first JF-17 squadron being weaponized and fully operationalized, we will see the arrival of F-16 Block 52 (Yes, there will be no last minute ‘hitches’), additional Saab Eireye AWACS aircraft, significant progress on the FC-20 fighter program, new air-to-air weapons such as the AMRAAM, and air to ground munitions and the Sniper targeting pod. In addition, the missile program will continue at full speed and more details will emerge regarding the 7,000km range Taimur ICBM. Pakistan will, however, not make any official announcements concerning this system. The much delayed Pakistan Navy next generation submarine deal will be finalized – there is a German vs. French situation going on at the moment but this will succesfully be navigated and a firm deal will take shape in 2010.

It is absolutely irrefutable that Pakistan has made tremendous strides forward in national defence. The only item from the list above that did not materialize was the Sub deal with Germany and/or France. In stead, we know hear that the PN is evaluating Chinese submarines. There are even rumours that the Chinese – in addition to providing a diesel fleet – may also lease a nuclear submarine to Pakistan (an SSGN). Too little is known about this thus far to elucidate much further, but things are definitely in the works.

As for the Taimur ICBM, piece parts have begun to fall into place. The most recent Hatf-V tests in December were rumoured to have included a MIRV (Multiple Re-entry Vehicles) warhead, which goes hand in hand with effective ICBM technology.

In addition to the list above, the Pakistan Air force also took delivery of Iluyshin air-to-air refuellers, Chinese AWACS, in addition to the Swedish Erieye aircraft and the SD-10 Beyond Visual Range Air to Air missile made significant progress in its SD-10B incarnation. The JF-17s will be armed with SD-10As for now as the standard BVR weapon, soon to be upgraded to the B model.

The F-16 Bl 52s were delivered on time, the JF-17 squadron is impressing people within the country as well as without. They participated in a static display at one of the world’s most famous airshows at Farnborough, in the UK, and then wowed crowds at China’s largest air event in Zhuhai.

Technology Predictions

There will be a near-breakout level of success with a Pakistani based mobile software company. At least one company will claim 250K users for its mobile products by the end of 2010. It is very likely that two will.

Pepper.pk announced that they have over 1 million users using their software products, but what’s more, Pepper’s Photo Editor software for the Blackberry made it to World #1 on AppWorld. So not only was there a breakout success, Pakistanis were literally on top of the world as far as this area of technology is concerned. I’ve never been happier at being right about something! More great things will come from Pepper and many other Pakistani technology startups in 2011 inshaAllah.

Netsol will see its fortunes improve in 2010 from a share price perspective. Hovering now at around $1, they can expect to be at least 25% better off by the end of the year.

Netsol fared even better! They are ending the year almost 50% up, at 1.50. They traded as high as $2 in 2010!

2010 is going to be a really bad year for Palm in terms of adoption of the Pre. I had predicted in 2008 that the Hail Mary piece of technology demo’d at CES fail for Palm. It has almost happened, but not quite completely yet. Palm will be relegated to a fourth tier player at best and 2010 will mark a signifciant reduction in its brand equity and influence.

I covered this one earlier this year… Palm got sold to HP and for not all that much. It’s Intellectual Property portfolio (patents) was probably worth 60-70% of the price paid by HP. So the operational parts of the business and the products themselves got valued at almost nothing. The good news is that HP will continue Palm products and may even be coming out with a Tablet leveraging the WebOS platform. Let’s see how it fares. Either way, let’s be clear that the Palm logos you see now don’t represent the good old Palm we knew and loved. That Palm is gone forever.

The Apple Tablet will be released and it will be a major hit. Even though I don’t like Apple, I will buy it  It will be iPhone OS based and will not have the full functionality of a Mac. eReader apps for it will be absolutely killer and very successful.

“Apple Tablet”… what a blast from the past! We all know now that the “Tablet” I spoke of in December 2009 ended up being the massively successful iPad. Yes, I bought it, and the product didn’t just achieve success, it launched a new market for similar devices. eReader apps were in fact a killer app, with Zinio launching digital magazine subscriptions straight to the iPad, and Apple itself showcasing iBooks as a major attraction. And aren’t you impressed that I even got the OS right? The iPad is indeed iOS based and not derived from OS X.

Windows Mobile 7 will come out in 2010 but will not be ‘all that’. It will take several updates and major enhancements to improve it. It will not reverse the market share trend away from Microsoft based phones that has taken hold over the last few years. Android will be the biggest gainer on the Smartphone side and will continue to whittle away at the Windows lead. Microsoft will undergo some pain in this area in 2010.

Yes, Phone7 did launch this year and thus far has sold about 1.5 million devices. In comparison, 300,000 Android devices are being sold every day. Phone7 may still impress, but certainly it hasn’t been a 2010 winner. Android, as I had predicted, went from 5% to 25% market share within a year! It is the biggest tech success story of 2010 in many ways.

ARM based devices and cheaper laptops will start to chip away at Netbook growth. There will at most 20% growth in the Atom based Netbook segment. A market which went from 0 units in 2007 to close to 40M units in 2009.

Netbooks slowed down immensely in 2010. In 2009, about 36.3 million units shipped and according to estimates in 2010 the number will be 40 million. As I had said, growth would be under 20%, and so it was. In 2011, this growth will decline even further.

Nokia is not being succesful in its move from basic and feature phones to truly smart phones. Their UI development and OS skills are not in the top 3 at all. I think this will be Nokia’s downfall… as smartphones become less expensive in markets outside the US, fewer people will choose Nokia as it will no longer provide the best experience primarily due to software reasons. From the low end, Samsung and LG feature phones will continue to become better thus providing competition to the traditional Nokia feature phone niche. All in all, 2010 will see other mobile companies grow at the expense of Nokia.

Wouldn’t change a thing even if I wrote the above earlier this morning instead of last year. As you can see from this IDC report, Nokia indeed lost market share. Samsung launched Bada, focused on foreign markets and the lower end of the smartphone cost spectrum. LG continues to grow. And from the top end you have the iPhone, Android and Windows Phone7 appearing as significant challengers to Nokia.

I was wrong on this one last year, and this is almost too easy for 2010, but then again – you never know! The Software Park Tower in Lahore will be completed and will become fully operational in 2010. It is going to be too expensive sq ft cost wise for most companies so move-ins will be slower than expected.

The building’s done, but rates are super expensive and I think move-ins will be few and far between until something is done to incent companies to move in.

Financial and Economic Predictions

The S&P will show a better than 7% gain in 2010. The Dow and NASDAQ will also come close to 10% gains.

The Dow was under 10,500 at the end of 2009, and is just under 11,600 now. That’s a better than 10% gain, as predicted. The NASDAQ went from just around 2,300 to over 2,650 at the end of 2010, that too is better than 10%. The S&P went from about 1125 to 1260 which handily beats the conservative 7% projection I made.

The recession in the US will be over officially – it technically is already – but you’ll hear common people saying it. There will be a net reduction in the unemployment rate in 2010.

Unemployment went down a mere .2% from Jan to December 2010, as shown here. There’s still a long way to go. The recession is technically over and the markets performed well, but until unemployment is reduced significantly, common people will continue to feel the pinch. I was only half right on this one.

The KSE, having recovered more rapidly than expected in 2009, will show more modest gains of in the 10-15% neighbourhood in 2010.

Well the KSE was the star of the year, showing better than a 20% gain and hitting a multi-year high. It did twice as well as the US markets. There’s something to be said for the fortitude of the Pakistani markets!

The Pakistani Rs. will continue to trade between 82 and 86 to the USD through the year.

Well, here’s the list of daily closes and we stayed under 87, so there you have it!

In summary, of 18 predictions, I was completely wrong on one (Asif Zardari) and half wrong on the US recession (ordinary people have yet to feel the effects of the technical data). Probably my most successful year of predictions thus far! And hopefully I haven’t jinxed myself by saying that.

So, stay tuned for the 2011 predictions. Watch this space!

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Lahore's almost-complete Software Park tower

After many delays and much hemming and hawing the much awaited Lahore Technology Park is almost complete. The building has now been topped off and work on the facade and interior has been moving forward full steam for a few months now. The parking lot structure, which will also contain some additional commercial space, is also pretty much done. Much remains to be done in the immediate vicinity though… vendors running small shops and stalls need to be moved, the power line distribution infrastructure needs to be re-worked, specially on the Ferozepur Road side, and the park grounds need to be beautified. But, in due time, that too will happen. For now, it’s nice to see the completed structure of a much delayed building!

It’s important to point out that with the delays affecting the CDGK’s (City District Government of Karachi) call center tower, this will be the country’s largest single structure devoted to technology – mostly software – businesses. The PITB (Punjab IT Board) is the agency responsible for the construction and maintenance of this complex.

Stay tuned for more as work progresses…

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Pakistan's Thar Desert holds beneath it trillions of dollars of proven - and untapped - coal reserves (Image credit: Travelpod)

Pakistan is an incredibly rich country when it comes to mineral wealth. There are numerous estimates of how significant our reserves of oil, gas, coal, metals, gold, marble and salt might be but one has to keep in mind that all such estimates are the result of limited surveys. Just the Thar coal reserves are known to pack more energy than the combined oil reserves of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Our Khewra salt mines are the world’s second largest, next to Canada’s gigantic Goderich mines. The amount of marble and onyx that is recovered from the mines in our northern areas is absolutely staggering. If only we had finer cutting and polishing industries our marble exports alone could generate a significantly higher level of foreign exchange.

In the past, there has been a great hesitance on the part of Pakistani governments to truly explore the country’s vast and untapped reserve of natural resources. Lately, however, I have been hearing at least the right sort of noises. For example, several power plants based on Thar coal extraction are about to come on line in the next couple of years. The investments in these facilities is in the $3.7B neighbourhood. They will tap a minutely small percentage of what the Thar reserves are capable of producing. Similarly, there has been a very promising development in Baluchistan, with the Army including 70,000 local Baluchi workers in a program to mine the mineral deposits at Chamalang and share the vast majority of the earnings with the local people, and to invest it in their development. Similarly, just a day or so ago, Salman Siddique, the Federal secretary of finance, announced that two companies – Chillian Tethyan Copper and Canada’s Barricks Gold - have agreed to invest $3.2B in the Baluchistan Rekodiq mines and develop infrastructure there.

This is encouraging! What must be ensured is complete transparency, which will hopefully reduce the chances of inefficiencies or graft creeping into the system. Here is a report from the Daily Times with more on the story:

Barricks, Tethyan to invest $3.2bn in copper, gold project

By Sajid Chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s potential copper and gold deposit Reko Diq (Balochistan) has been able to attract a fresh investment to the tune of $3.2 billion by a joint venture comprising the world’s largest mining company Barricks Gold Corporation of Canada and Chillian Tethyan Copper Company.

Federal Secretary Finance Salman Siddique hosted a reception in honour of the President and Chief Executive of Barricks Gold Corporation of Canada, Aaron Regent which was attended by Federal Minister for Finance Dr Hafeez Shaikh, diplomats and senior government officials.

President and CEO of Barricks Gold Corporation of Canada, Aaron Regent speaking on the occasion said that the joint venture to develop the Riko Diq into a world class mine with transfer of technology and human resource development for the benefit of the province as well as for the economy of Pakistan.

He informed that development of Reko Diq would create around 11,000 job opportunities and the project operations would provide jobs to some 25, 000 to mainly locals as well as technical human resource.

TO continue reading, please visit The Daily Times

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The brand new Islamabad Stock Exchange building (Photo credit: NNI)

The KSE’s experienced some ups and downs lately. Perhaps not as extreme as the Dow rollercoaster, but ups and downs nonetheless. It’s good to see there’s some positive movement now and there’s been a consistent recovery from the dip we saw a couple of months ago. The run-up has allowed the index to comfortably cross the 10,000 mark. The index stands at 10,187 pts on July 14th, 2010. The last time we covered the index was at this level was back in April when the market had breached the 10,500 pt barrier.

So where does the index go from here? This is a tough one to call because there’s just way too many variables in play these days. My personal opinion is that the index will remain rangebound in the 9,600-10,800 point range for a while. There will need to be some exceptionally good news to move it beyond this level. There has been a flurry of good economic news recently, for example, the export targets being met, the forex remittances hitting an all-time high, reserves hitting an all-time high and power generation projects coming on line. There’s no doubt that an alleviation of the power crisis will definitely spur industry and there’s a very good chance that these effects will become visible in the next 9-18 months given the maturation of projects currently in play.

So, net-net, good news for now! We’ll probably stay under 11K pts for the next couple of months and beyond that there’s a good chance that positive movement continues as long as the news stays good and there isn’t a recurrence of the global meltdown. That last piece, by the way, is far from an unlikely event given the recent indications that the US economic recovery is stuttering now that the bailout monies are dissipating.

We’ll watch the KSE here and see how things progress. Stay tuned!

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PTCL needs to pay attention to the reduced QoS of its Evo service (Image credit: PTCL)

EV-DO has been a huge success in Pakistan. Since its debut in Pakistan early last year, multiple providers have entered the market and adoption has certainly gone through the roof. I first wrote about PTCL’s EV-DO services in Pakistan back in April 2009 and in the year that has gone by since then, the number of EV-DO users on PTCL’s service has exploded. Consequently, we’ve been receiving many blog comments complaining about poor performance, connection issues and other troubles. All this while, I’ve been using PTCL’s service and have experienced fairly decent service, albeit with some sporadic issues. I decided to revisit the PTCL EV-DO performance question and conduct a comparison with the data rates we were seeing back in April 2009. We can all sense there’s been a slow-down, but by how much exactly?

We used the trusty Speedtest.net tools, just as we had a year ago, to conduct our bandwidth and latency tests. Here is what our test looks for a Lahore-New York city connection:

PTCL EV-DO performance 3/26/2010. Lahore to New York.

To refresh your memory, we saw download speeds of 1.57Mbps and upload rates of .23 Mbps in April 2009. So in comparison, the most noticeable reduction has been in the download department. Upload is close enough, with a .01 Mbps difference, to be a wash. Downloads, however, are 14% slower. This is unfortunate, because it indicates that PTCL has not upgraded international bandwidth at the same rate it has grown users. Obviously, if there’s more demand for the international circuits there will be some degradation in performance.

To some extent, however, slowdowns are to be expected when user bases grow rapidly. So, putting things in context, my personal conclusion is that despite the 14-15%  reduction in download speeds, PTCL’s EV-DO service continues to provide decent performance with good mobility. It’s still a good option for consumers that need mobile broadband. That said, I certainly hope PTCL will remedy the performance issues and restore download speeds to what they were at launch. But in the interim, I continue to be a relatively satisfied user. If things change, I will certainly let you know!

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PTCL brings Telepresence to Pakistan (Image credit: PTCL)

Telepresence is one of those mind-blowing technologies that you don’t have to explain to anyone, or convince people to buy. The moment they see it, they get it. And they want it. Cisco has been one of the leading firms innovating in this area. With decreases in communication costs and improvement in infrastructure, Telepresence promises to truly revolutionize the world. Imagine Broadway plays at Lahore’s Alhamra Hall via Telepresence. Or MIT lectures beamed to FAST SAHICS… almost in the flesh. And Abida Perveen via Telepresence, singing at cultural events in Tokyo, Beijing and San Fransisco, all on the same day!

The possibilities for business are endless too. Once the technology proliferates, meetings across timezones and collaboration across continents will become seamless, “real” and almost as good as being there in the flesh. But enough from me… here’s a compelling demonstration of the technology:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=X28-XVxYeAc

Awesome, isn’t it? Well, here’s something even more awesome. Telepresence has come to Pakistan! PTCL is the first Pakistani telecommunications company to officially deliver these services. PTCL just signed a customer agreement for Telepresence services in with Getronics. There aren’t many details available yet on features, prices and geographical availability, but we’re sure that information will make itself into the public domain shortly.

Here’s the news as reported by The Business Recorder:

LAHORE (March 19 2010): The Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) signed-up its first customer agreement for Tele Presence service with M/S Getronics. The PTCL Senior Executive Vice President (BZ-N) Tariq Salman and Country Manager Getronics Faisal Rao signed the agreement on behalf of their respective organisations.

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Lahore's Pace Circle and Hyatt Regency Hotel... construction is proceeding rapidly

This post is the second in a series titled, “Pakistan Emerging”. The first post can be read here.

A few weeks ago we looked at Pakistan’s evolving situation as it relates to regional security and in context of its alliances with emerging powers. In other words, how the regional and external situation is propelling Pakistan in a very positive direction. In this second piece of the “Pakistan Emerging” series, I want to focus instead on things happening within Pakistan; projects, infrastructure, initiatives etc. that I believe are mere peeks into both the quality and quanta of development and change taking place in the country.

In a previous article, I addressed many aspects which I would have covered here had I not already written about them. For example, increasing rates of literacy, arresting population growth, macro economic situation etc. So before you go any further, if you are truly interested and haven’t read that earlier piece, you might want to take a look now.

Lahore's beautiful Allama Iqbal International Airport is being expanded

My work requires me to travel quite a lot, so I am frequently away from Pakistan. But every time I take that flight back, and land at Lahore’s Allama Iqbal International Airport, I start to notice things that have changed since the last time I stood in the same spot. And that’s understandable, because one of the largest infrastructure projects currently in progress in Pakistan, Lahore’s 80km+ 6 lane circular highway, “The Ring Road”, is unfolding right outside the Airport. Once you start driving away from the airport, you notice billboards for “Broadway” and “Lake City”, just two of a large number of ultra-modern residential and commercial developments being undertaken in Lahore. And it’s not just a few homes or a few buildings, these projects are massive. Lake City alone will be home to 100,000 people and if you look at some of the images I’m including in this article, you’ll get a sense for how these massive and extremely well-thought out communities are changing the shape of Pakistan’s cities.

Lahore's Ring Road is a remarkable and massive project

And it’s not just Lahore where this is happening. You only have to see the UAE real estate giant Emaar’s projects outside Islamabad, or the German Meinhardt Group’s developments in Karachi to get a sense for the scale and concurrent change taking place across the length and breadth of the country.

Lahore: The cultural hub of Pakistan… and a fast-emerging world metropolis!

Lahore's Defence Raaya layout

Glimpses of the emerging Lahore of tomorrow can be seen today when you drive through one of the many new urban areas under development. Lake City is one of these, an immaculately planned 2,104 acre new development on the outskirts of Lahore. The first houses in Lake City have already been completed,  but eventually there will be almost 4,000 residences, hundreds of shops, malls and dozens of office buildings. Lake City has a giant lake at its center, with ‘arms’ extending throughout the development, as well as an artificial beach. A PGA 18 hole golf course is included in the development also, with a 5-star hotel and adjoining club for residents.

The construction so far, in Lahore DHA's Defence Raya

And Lake City by no means is the only such development. Lahore’s area has more than doubled in the last 10-15 years. The giant new Defence Housing Authority (DHA) developments, for example, are of similar quality. Defence Raaya, a small part of the overall DHA initiative, is a 400 acre development also built around a new Golf Course. The quality of the build-out starts from the infrastructure; underground wiring, excellent roads, grid layout, green belts and extends to the homes themselves. Amongst DHA’s other projects is the Broadway and Hydra Group’s Times Square. These projects each involve dozens of skyscrapers and other buildings which will forever transform Lahore’s skyline in just a few short years.

The progress so far at Lahore's Lake City... many homes are now ready for move-ins!

Lahore has long been the proud home of several leading hotels, including the evergreen Pearl Continental, the Hilton/Avari, Holiday Inn and others. But the number of 4+ star rooms available in the provincial capital will soon more than double. Two new Hyatt projects are being built, while a new Hotel Intercontinental is likely to be launched in partnership with Lahore’s breathtaking Royal Palm Golf and Country Club (RPGCC). Pearl Continental’s new Hotel One is also a new entrant into the market, followed by the Pearl Continental’s (Mall Road) own expansion.

Lahore's Royal Palm Club is the finest Club in South Asia

Lahore is an ancient city and belongs to an era when transport was on foot, by horse – or if you were a royal – by elephant! And expanding the road network in a large, living city like Lahore is not without its challenges. However, during the last few years there has been a massive effort to make signal free corridors and new highways. Lahore’s multi-billion dollar Ring Road project alone will add over 80KM of

A massive archway at the entrance of the grand Mall of Lahore

circular highway around the city, connecting all parts of it via a 6-lane freeway. Other projects intended to expand Lahore’s roads and highways include the conversion of Multan Road into a wide highway (in progress) and the expansion of Ferozepur road into a Lahore-Kasur highway. Of course, the M2, linking Lahore to Islamabad remains one of Pakistan’s major highways and access to it has now been significantly eased with the construction of the Thokar Niaz Beg flyover and various underpasses on the Canal Road. The Canal, in itself, has been enhanced with two new underpasses and a major overpass recently completed at Mughalpura and Harbanspura.In terms of commercial development, Lahore has seen numerous upgrades, for example, the Punjab IT Board’s Software Park Tower, a state-of-the-art skyscraper that will act as a high-tech incubator and office space for tech companies. Under construction for the past few years, the Lahore Convention Center is also about to be inaugurated by the Prime Minister within the next few weeks. This large facility will include a skyscraper and numerous other structures, but at the heart of it will be a giant convention center which will host international conferences, trade shows and other activities.

A shopping mall in Lahore

Shopping in Lahore has also undergone a transformation. Where previously the corner store was standard fare, mega stores like Makro, Hyperstar (Carrefour) and Metro provide a new option. These giant megastores are creating jobs for thousands and allowing Lahore’s denizens to shop smart and save… not to mention the shopping experience has been significantly improved. In addition to these megastores, fashionable malls such as the recently opened “Mall of Lahore” and the upcoming Mall 99 and Pace Circle near Allama Iqbal International, are becoming incredibly popular.

Industrial development at the outskirts of the city cannot be overlooked if one talks about the evolution of the city. The new Sundar Industrial estate was one of the key accomplishments of the past government and new industries continue to come online there. This project alone will add tens of thousands of jobs for the denizens of greater Lahore.

Lahore's jewel, the lovely tree lined canal that runs through the city, is being made even more beautiful

Lahore is being reshaped not just by beautiful new buildings and luxurious new hotels and malls. There is a “greener” change afoot… The Punjab government is developing the area around the new Ring Road as a green belt and has also already started the implementation of the Canal revival project. As part of this effort, the PHA (Punjab Horticultural Authority) is leveling both banks of the Canal that runs through the city, and planting flowers, shrubs and other plants. Completely lined, as it is, on both sides with Weeping Willows, Eucalyptus and numerous other trees, the Canal is only getting greener and more beautiful. Numerous other parks are also being upgraded and restored. Just in the Lahore Cantt area alone, over the last few years, parks have been completely transformed. The beautiful new Park next to “Girja Chowk”, or Cathedral Square is just one example. Another one is the exemplary park right next to the Cavalry Grounds Polo field.

Lahore's Software Park Tower - the inset shows current progress

So how are these changes impacting Lahore? Well, the’re undoubtedly improving the quality of life of Lahore’s citizens by easing transportation, adding numerous sources of entertainment while making the city greener and more friendly. They are also creating thousands of jobs in manufacturing, retail and services, while making Lahore a far more tourist-friendly metropolis. The Lahore of tomorrow retains the  history, wonder and charm it has always had, while adding to these timeless qualities, innovation, convenience, modernity and most of all, a dynamic, unrelenting positive energy that has an exclusively Lahori flavour!

In future episodes of the Pakistan Emerging series, I’ll take a look at the Islamabad and Karachi of tomorrow.

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Visitors from western countries that visit Pakistan are often surprised at the developed infrastructure, friendly people and safe environment. Fox News notwithstanding!

Putting the blithering idiots in the western media in their place, William Dalrymple, celebrated scholar on South Asia and author of numerous best sellers, such as The Last Moghul and White Moghuls, talked about the differences between Pakistan and India as part of a recently held IQ2 discussion forum.

Dalrymple has been living in India for 20 years and has visited Pakistan on numerous occasions. I was unfortunate to have missed his last series of talks in Lahore, connected with the launch of his most recent book. Suffice to say, his first-hand knowledge of the sub continent is uncontested.

He goes on to talk about the infrastructure in India and Pakistan and says that he finds Pakistan far more developed in this area. He praises Pakistani roads and airports, calling them “infinitely better” than those in India. Talking on security, Mr. Dalrymple says that he felt completely safe in Pakistan and other than FATA and some areas in the Frontier, “you can go anywhere… drive anywhere” and be completely safe.

Dalrymple explains how the insurgency currently going on in India (Maoists and Naxalites), is just as “dangerous” as the Taliban violence connected to the border areas of Afghanistan/Pakistan. That the area under control of the Maoists is actually 3 times larger than what the Taliban influence in Pakistan. Yet, the media has lost complete perspective of this truth.

More people in the west, unfortunately misled by the macabre mixture of pseudo-news and entertainment, courtesy Fox and CNN, need to hear from Dalrymple; someone who actually knows Pakistan and India. For those of you who run software and IT companies with foreign customers, consider sending a link to the below if the subject of security in Pakistan comes up. In my own personal experience, having hosted dozens of Americans and Europeans, once they’ve visited the country they absolutely love it. For those of my guests and business associates that have also been to India, I get the exact same feedback every single time. That Pakistan is far more developed, cleaner, less crowded and equipped with better infrastructure than India.

So, without further ado, here’s William Dalrymple:

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