Will Newt Gingrich's dream of a moon base by 2020 come true? Will it be American or Chinese? (Image credit: Dynamic Science)

The Republican primaries have certainly ejected a lot of muck into the political atmosphere, much like a large, destructive asteroid would throw up debris and dust for miles if it were to strike terra firma. For what is to follow, the space analogy seems particularly appropriate. Mr. Gingrich, who is hoping to unseat Mitt Romney as the Republican favourite, recently visited Florida, home of the NASA Shuttle Program, where he declared that by the end of his second term, he would establish a permanent US base on the Moon. Further, once there is a large enough number of people occupying such a Moon base complex, the Moon could then be “ceded” to the US as its 51st state.

Ridiculous or not, you be the judge of that. Perhaps today it is, but maybe in 20 or 50 years it won’t be. The fact that the major powers will rekindle a space race is almost a certain proposition. China has announced that it will be launching a large number of satellites in the next 2 years and its plans for a permanent space station have also been made public. Private companies, such as SpaceX in the US, have been working diligently on making launches less expensive. There will certainly be a push to tap into the vast riches of space at some point in the not too distant future. Whether it will be as soon as Newt promises, or whether private enterprise will even be the catalyst, remains to be seen.

Neil DeGrasse Tyson, scientist and prominent TV personality, was interviewed by MSNBC on just this subject. Dr. Tyson believes that it is not for private enterprise, but for government to lead the way back to the moon and back into deep space. At the end of the day, Newt and his Republican comrades cannot expect government to be cut back and NASA budgets to shrink, while also predicting bold possibilities that require R&D funding and government investments.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rQn37WTjc0

Do you think Newt is on to something? Or is he just on something? Do you agree with Dr. Tyson? Take a look at the interview video and join us in the comments section.

Share this:

Lots of stuff will happen in 2012, but the world will not end. Sorry Mayans! (Image credit: TheAtlanticWire)

2012 is going to be a very interesting year. Elections are coming up in two very important countries, Pakistan (in early 2013) and the United States (2012). The US’ confrontation with Iran has both countries making threats and accusations and heading in a direction that seems to be escalatory. Further, the US has retreated from Iraq and violence there seems to be at an upswing. As someone said, the US-Iraq war is over. Iran won. Then, we also have the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan which has led to much drama and desperation on the part of the ISAF and NATO forces; as we predicted last year, the US is now openly saying that the Taliban are not a US enemy, the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, has been removed from the FBI’s most wanted list and US diplomats are now negotiating with the Taliban with no preconditions. In that the Taliban have not laid down their weapons and continue to control over 75% of Afghan territory, these negotiations appear to be more about NATO giving in to the Taliban position and figuring out how to withdraw in haste than the opposite.

And that’s just the geo-strategic picture. Lots of exciting technology is going to be introduced also this year, and all eyes are on Europe and America as the economic troubles enter their fifth year. Will this finally be the bottom and will we start heading in the right direction? I thought this would have happened in 2011, but I was wrong. So, what happens in 2012? Read on to find out.

Political and Geo-strategic Predictions

1. The PPP government in Pakistan will not be removed. They may choose to go for early elections once the Senate elections are completed, but no other force (Army, PTI etc.) will compel them to leave office. This will be good as it sets the tone for a long running democratic dispensation which self-adjusts to find a workable solution to governance in Pakistan.

2. The PPP will pull off a successful senate election, strengthening the President.

3. Memogate will not lead to Asif Zardari’s resignation.

4. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.

5. Romney will come pretty close to removing Obama, but Obama will scrape through. Personally, with all of Obama’s broken promises and false mantras of change, we would rather Romney win in his stead, not because we support Romney, but simply because we feel there should be some accountability for such a disastrous and damaging run in office.

6. The PTI will emerge as a political force post the next election, but nowhere near the numbers being claimed by Imran Khan who has suggested that it will be a Tsunami and will take an outright majority. Not even close.

7. 2012 will mark Pakistan’s strategic goodbye to America. There is still lots of discussion about whether regular business-as-usual relations between Pakistan and the US will resume, but we don’t think they will in the foreseeable future. In fact, the NATO massacre of Pakistani troops precipitated what had to happen anyway. Pakistan has simply had enough of the US pushing it around and asking for “more” when the US themselves, along with all their other allies, have done far less than Pakistan in prosecuting the WoT. The absolutely false claims of $20B in “aid”, which have been made repeatedly, have done nothing other than simply insult, irritate and anger both the Pakistani establishment and its populace. First off, it’s not as if this $20B was the figure of assistance for any single year. This paltry sum, which pales in comparison to the $600+B annual US defence budget, and the $1T+ spent on the lost war in Afghanistan, covers TEN years of supposed (and imaginary) assistance to Pakistan. Second, $20B have not actually been transferred, so the figure itself is nonsense. Third, the bulk of the money actually dispensed by the US has been for reimbursements, i.e. money ALREADY SPENT by Pakistan which the US OWES it. Fourth, the rest of this money has been spent through US agencies, contractors and mostly, on US goods. This means the effective value of every $1 spent by US AID is probably less than 25c of benefit to Pakistan. With the hefty, fees due to overpaid American consultants and vendors along with the unnecessary spending on transportation, very little actual benefit is accrued. In a nutshell, the real value of all US “AID” to Pakistan stands probably at 2-3% of the $80+Billion Pakistan has lost in the WoT. To top off the monetary exploitation, Pakistan has been bullied, the US press and media have been used as a veritable weapon in an unrelenting disinformation war against Pakistan and Pakistan’s interests (e.g. the IP(C) pipeline with Iran), on fundamental issues unrelated to the US or the WoT, have been repeatedly threatened. This simply cannot go on. We also believe that the death of this last US-Pakistan alliance will lead to Pakistan’s migration into the Asian camp, where it will work increasingly in concert with Russia and China in future, and will never again (at least for the next 30-50 years) consider an alliance with America.

8. Despite rumours, Gen. Pasha and Gen. Kiyani will not secure further extensions.

9. The bluster doesn’t past muster. The US will not attack Iran in 2012.

Technology Predictions

1. Windows 8 will be a significant force this year. It will rekindle interest in Windows as a consumer OS as a large number of tablets and phones will support it. 2012 is when Microsoft will really launch its counterattack against Apple, but unlike in the past, this will not be based on stealing marketshare from the iPhone, but grabbing as much interest from non-Smartphone and Blackberry users as possible. Windows Phone applications will touch 100,000 by the end of the year.

2. Microsoft will buy Nokia’s Smartphone division.

3. RIM had a terrible year, but the new Blackberry 10 products will begin to stop the bleeding. RIM still provides the most secure solution, and it is generating north of $5B in revenue every quarter, so it is a force to be reckoned with. There will be a lot of discussion around a RIM acquisition in 2012, but it will not happen.

4. Android will continue to grow at the expense of the iPhone and most of all, Symbian and RIM. In the end, though, we don’t quite understand what Android does for Google. In many respects, the fundamental desire Google had of owning the endpoint to ensure that access to its services would be smooth and uninterrupted, seems premised on the assumption that non-Google OSs somehow wouldn’t allow access (or at least, fair, open access) to Google. I am not sure this makes much sense, since Google services are available and used on all non-Android OSs. Either way, Android is definitely going to grow market share in 2012, probably by another 5-10 points.

5. Ultrabooks are going to be BIG this year. They will also, in concert with Windows 8, lead a PC renaissance which should stem Apple’s growth on the PC/Laptop side of the house. My gut tells me that Apple’s desktop/laptop marketshare will grow at 60-70% the rate at which it grew in 2011. Ultrabooks will put a dent…

6. The next iPad will come out with a) 2-3MP display resolution b) reduced entry level model price c) Siri integration d) dual core 1.2+Ghz processor. However, momentum for non iPad tablets will continue, especially with the advent of Windows 8 slabs. By the end of 2012, less than half of all tablets sold will be Apple iPads.

Financial Predictions

1. The KSE will post 10% growth this year. First, as explained below, the favourable USD-Rs. exchange ratio will make Pakistani stocks cheaper for foreign investors, and second, the continued reduction of WoT related violence inside the country will bring the stability necessary for growth in investor confidence. If it weren’t for 2012 being the run-up to an election and numerous political events punctuating the year (Musharraf’s return, court proceedings, PTI “jalsas”, Senate elections, pre-election politics and so on), this number would have been higher. In part, growth will also be helped by the beginnings of a global recovery in 2012.

2. The Pakistani Rs. will touch an exchange rate of Rs. 95 to $1 USD during the year. It may go as high as Rs. 100, but 95 is within reason. Some repayments to the IMF are coming up which will pressure the foreign reserve. We’ll get through it without all that much trouble, but a rise in the exchange rate can be safely assumed.

3. The Dow will show modest growth, around 5% for the year. The early part of 2012 will be marked with some optimism, with a dip hitting the middle of the year. The last few months of the year will show a recovery powered by fundamental improvements in economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, and some control over federal spending finally kicking in. The huge amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets also need to be spent at some stage and if 2012 looks safe, CFOs will let go of the purse strings, kicking off M&A and spurring some market growth.

4. Pakistan’s GDP will grow at about 4% during 2012.

5. There will be a reduction in the unemployment rate in the US, probably by about .3-.5%, ending at about 8.2% or so in December 2012.

6. Netsol touched a peak in 2011 and then fell to the ground in terms of stock value. 2012 will see improvement, but a peak of $1 is probably optimistic. Nonetheless, some money can be made on Netsol if it is bought around 40c and sold when it approaches 60-65c during 2012.

[Techlahore takes no responsibility for any financial projections or stock predictions. We are not advocating the purchase or sale of any security and are providing our opinions purely for general interest purposes. The reader assumes all responsibility for all his/her financial decisions, including the sale or purchase of any security.]

Share this:

TechLahore's 2011 predictions turned out to be the least accurate EVER! Hmph!

We’ve been publishing since 2007 and TechLahore is hence not exactly a “new” blog. As institutions age, they accrue tradition, and TechLahore is no different. Our December evaluations of the past year’s predictions have been happening now for the past several years. In January, we’ll follow-up with a new set of predictions for 2012.

Here are the past evaluations, in case you’re interested:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010
2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009
3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

So, without further ado, let’s see how we fared this year:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

Spot on. The parliament is here and if the Army Chief’s recent statements are to be believed, no coup is in the offing.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

The Congress government has become a symbol of inefficiency and corruption in India. India has actually fallen further on the Transparency corruption index. Manmohan has lost the Mr. Clean image for sure. I’ll claim full credit here.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Despite the fact that the Republicans were busy ripping each other apart, the Congress being a veritable ball and chain around the Presidency has resulted in a low approval rating. We said we’d use the Rasmussen Reports as our measure, and as per the latest poll in December 2011, Obama is still roughly where he started the year (-13).

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

According to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, the number of deaths in 2011 fell by almost 40%! This was good news for Pakistanis, and in fact, the last half of the year saw an almost complete halt in terror attacks throughout the country. The few instances that did occur were limited to checkposts near or in the FATA areas.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

NATO has done almost nothing against the Taliban in Afghanistan. A couple of half-hearted thrusts here and there, with no real resolve for meeting any tangible goals. They have also talked about allowing the Taliban to setup an office in a Gulf state and have been engaged with negotiations with the so-called “enemy”. In fact, the only military action NATO engaged in this past year which made waves was an attack on two Pakistani checkposts, resulting in the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani soldiers. Viz the Taliban, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is pretty much finished. What remains is a negotiated settlement that allows the US room to depart without being chased.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

The number of drone strikes this year was significantly less than last year. Here is the data.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Hear hear! Android is now the defacto King of the mobile OSs. Android now accounts for 53% of smartphone shipments. I had said the US market share for Android will increase to 33%, and in reality, according to Nielsen it has gone past 42%. So I’ll take this one…

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Yes and yes. Tablets were THE story of the year and non Apple tablets are now coming out the wazoo. As I had predicted, not only did the iPad’s market share fall, it fell a bit faster than I had predicted. According to IDC, it stands at 68% going into the holidays.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Apps grew much faster than even I had predicted. Apple announced that there are 500,000 iOS apps. Android stands at 250,000 apps. And Microsoft Phone7 is at 25,000. Blackberry hasn’t grown as fast, but net-net, the prediction I made of the total number of mobile apps exceeding 700,000 has come true. We are actually probably closer to a million than 750,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Measured in almost every way, 2011 was a great year for Pakistani software. At APICTA, Pakistanis won more awards than ever before. Whereas 2010 saw one Pakistani mobile app make it to World #1, in 2011 there were two more. And the growth we are seeing has made many experts very hopeful. Current estimates suggest that we will exceed $10B by 2020.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

I felt a shudder when I read that part about the new iPhone not being particularly “innovative”. Look at the new device. It wasn’t even a significant enough upgrade to merit the iPhone “5″ moniker. Apple stuck with 4S. And rightly so. The antenna issue is fixed, and other than the bundling of Siri, which was available as a free download for older iPhones prior to Apple’s acquisition of the company, there isn’t much to write home about. Android has left the iPhone in the proverbial dust. Yes, the iPhone is very much a market leader from an ease of use and proliferation of apps perspective, but Android phones now have faster radios, better screens, faster processors, more storage, better cameras and pretty much everything else.

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Windows 8 not only provides better visualization, it has an entirely reinvented Metro based UI for tablets. It does in fact standardize 64 bit and yes, there isn’t going to be a 2011 release. However, as predicted the CTP was launched this year. I’ll take this one… I was even right about it being an honest to goodness PC OS – one click and you’re back to the traditional Windows desktop.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Cloud has overtaken the IT airwaves and while Virtualization remains a persistent meme, it is getting less airplay because it is becoming part of the “assumed” stack of capabilities. PaaS infrastructure has definitely grown, along with IaaS ala Amazon. Inexpensive PCs and tablets have been a core IT story throughout 2011, whether it be the Indian Akaash tablet, the Ainovo novo 7, the Amazon Kindle Fire or the about to be released Raspberry Pi. It’s all about sub-hundred dollar price points… So now let’s look at my VMware stock price prediction. I said there won’t be a huge increase because virtualization’s cool-factor will start to subside, but it won’t be significant enough to warrant a big price drop. Well, VMware stands at around $84 right now. A little less than last year, but just a little, as predicted.

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Wrong. Wateen is around. Crippled and in need of direction. But around.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Wrong. Netsol didn’t have a good year. I was right that it would close about $2.25, because it touched $2.39 in February. But it’s been a slide since then. So even though I was half right at least about the annual high, I won’t take this one.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

Wrong. GDP was actually 2.37%, below what I had expected. Shucks.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

Wrong. The KSE, along with world markets, declined. There was a high around 12,700 in January 2011, but the market trended southward given everything that has happened in the world from an economic standpoint this year. It ended the year about 4% in the red.

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Half right. The Dow went up by about 6%, but the Nasdaq declined by slightly less than 2%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

Absolutely spot on. In Jan, unemployment was at 9%. By Nov 2011 it had declined by .4% to 8.6%.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

Wrong. While the housing market does appear to be turning around, it didn’t happen in 2011. There was probably a roughly 3% decline in average home prices across the US.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

That’s just how it happened. Didn’t touch Rs. 100 to the dollar, but we’re at 90. So that does translate into a little over 5% weakening through the year.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

This one is really hard to call. I have done a few informal tests with a few plots throughout the city and while there hasn’t been a decline, it’s not clear to me whether the asking price is something that is attracting buyers readily. I just don’t have enough data on this one to make a call. If you look at the lahorerealestate.com data for plots in Defence etc. the prices have risen just slightly.

So, where did we end up? 15 right (I’ll claim half credit for a couple) and 7 wrong. I think that might be the worst I’ve ever done. Most of where I fell short had to do with the economy in the US and Pakistan. Essentially, I was expecting a faster recovery than what has materialized. So what do I think will happen in 2012? Well, stay tuned for that post in January! Till then, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Share this:

A huge slinky made of $1.052B dollars hops into Pakistan in March 2011

We usually keep a close eye on indicators such as the influx of remittances, our foreign reserves and stock indices. But what we’ve just learned about remittance trends for March has actually caught us off guard… and in a good way! Over the last several years, rising remittances to Pakistan have been part of an amazing – yet undercovered – story. Pakistanis working and living abroad continue to demonstrate their confidence in the future of Pakistan by investing ever larger sums of money in their homeland. According to the State Bank of Pakistan’s figured, the influx of dollars exceeded $1.052 Billion in March alone, marking an almost 40% increase over the same period last year!

This growth is absolutely incredible, not just in terms of the dollar figures, but in particular due to the massive percentage delta that was registered. We may well be on track this year (2011) for a $12+ Billion remittance figure.

And that brings me to another issue which I’ve raised in the past. Much has been made about Pakistan’s IMF programme and how this was necessary to keep the economy going. The programme, running over 4 years, amounted to less than this years expected foreign remittances. And now we’re learning that Pakistan’s planners over-borrowed. There was absolutely no need for even the amount of money that we did get from the IMF. Our “IMF man” is quoted here as regretting the expansion in this programme. In truth, with Pakistan’s rising remittances, the recent boom in exports and the instability in the Middle East which is making Pakistan an increasingly attractive destination for expatriate as well as Arab money, our Finance Ministry needs to rethink the IMF relationship.

During the Musharraf years, one of the most positive developments was Pakistan deciding to end all IMF programmes. Even though the international fund has changed its practices to be a little less predatory, it continues to be an organization which is best kept at a distance from national economic policy.

We’ll keep our eyes peeled for April and May figures. Our expectation is that this year will break past records for the maximum amount of remittances received. Here’s hoping we’re proved right come December!

Share this:

Operatives at the Pentagon want to be on your friend list without you knowing it

This news item should have gotten a lot more coverage than it did. The Pentagon has launched a programme under which their operatives will be creating thousands of false identities on social networks to engage in “conversations” with people in the ME, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia. The idea is to use software as a force multiplier and as a means to conduct urdu, pushto, darri and arabic conversations with people in this region in a way that causes them to believe they are speaking to a native and/or a friend. These conversations then seek to expose those who might have views with which the Pentagon disagrees. Since the entire program will be run under wraps, it is not possible to get a real sense of what opinions and thoughts will raise red flags. It is also not possible to entirely understand the manner in which these conversations will be had.

It is not hard to see how a system like this can suffer from widespread abuse. If you engage with hundreds of thousands of people in the region – a region which is clearly not very happy with America’s foreign policy – and “design” conversations to entrap and ensnare, then thousands of perfectly innocent people with charged emotions may end up falling prey.

There are also other fears… what if the profiles being made are not just fictitious people you may not know (and might be more guarded with), but hijacked profiles or real people you are in fact connected with? You might think you’re talking to a friend who may turn out to be someone sitting in Langley or inside the Pentagon. Since networks like Facebook do not prevent two profiles with the same name being created, your friend, “Ahmad Khan”, for example, may have had his name, profile and his picture copied by a third party which then seeks to extend a “Friend” request. You may think Ahmad accidentally deleted you and is just readding you, or forgot the password to his previous account and has made a new one. However, behind this hijacked identity anyone could be pulling the strings and causing you to expose information you do not trust them with.

The world is increasingly becoming a 1984-like control freak society driven and controlled by paranoid individuals. For it is not the people who resist such control that are paranoid, but those who suspect each and every person in this region of ill intentions. And those who would go so far as to spend millions of dollars in a false-identity information gathering programme directed at millions of citizens of sovereign countries, while they reside in their own homes. A liberal interpretation of cyber warfare may include such a campaign as an assault on the citizens of an entire region. Either way, the only defence against abuse of such a system and attempts at entrapment, are to maintain a responsible and limited online persona. No point having your words taken out of context by trigger happy intelligence agencies prowling the ‘net…

Share this:

The kind of vicious campaign that has been conducted against Pakistan and Pakistanis in the international media over the last many years is really unprecedented. It appears that one can’t pick up a newspaper or newsmagazine that doesn’t go to great lengths to paint a malicious and incredibly warped picture of Pakistan. It was several years ago that Newsweek famously declared Pakistan, “The most dangerous nation”. Several pundits have been predicting our demise for decades. Those deadlines keep passing, probably much to their chagrin.

Reality, however, is markedly different to what we’ve all been reading in the press. Let’s just look at last year alone. A year, mind you, that should never have arrived! We should have been wiped off the face of the earth much earlier, according to our detractors.

But, against all odds, in 2010:

1) The Karachi stock exchange outperformed the much ballyhooed “BRIC” nations significantly. We returned almost 28% to investors over the year, whereas neither the BRIC bourses, nor the NASDAQ or Dow came anywhere remotely close.

2) In the midst of much political upheaval, we continued to produce brilliant students who have been educated in Pakistan from kindergarten to college. After Ali Moeen’s record-setting 23 A’Levels passed with flying colours, in 2010 we had another young boy break all previous O’Level records with 23 As! If you know anything at all about O’Levels, this feat will leave you shocked beyond belief. How, in the name of Isaac Asimov, can a human mind contain all the information and understanding necessary to excel in 23 subjects?! But apparently, a Pakistani lad has shown us that in our country, this too is possible.

3) Business continues to grow in Pakistan with the recently launched Pakistan 25 fast growing companies index providing an initial indication of the excellence, variety and diversity entrepreneurs in Pakistan represent. One of our local software companies produced a global #1 hit with their Blackberry software product. Meanwhile, we’ve had a whole slew of award winning performances from other local software outfits, and growth has returned to the software industry. Better figures perhaps need to be collected, but based on my own understanding, I would project that we grew the industry by at least 20% last year (2010). And all this is with a full fledged war across our border, 4 million Afghan refugees burdening our economy and a global recession, not to mention numerous other woes. If this isn’t perseverance, tell me what is!

4) IMF this, and IMF that. But here’s the truth. It isn’t the IMF or the US that are supporting the Pakistani economy. It is the hard work of our own people, here and abroad. Pakistani expatriates, a community now numbering 7 million worldwide, continue to send substantial remittances back to their motherland. 2010 left all previous years in the dust, with $10+ Billion in remittances from Pakistanis living overseas. Further, our exports are on track to exceed $20 Billion for the very first time. When you consider the global context in which this 15-18% growth is occurring, it is nothing short of astounding.

5) Our diplomacy left much to be desired as far as dealings with our western allies go. But, the visit of the Chinese premier was a clear win for the country. With almost $40 Billion in investments and projects announced, the Chinese commitment to Pakistan dwarfs the KL Bill’s $1.5B per annum, or any other bilateral relationship, for that matter.

6) And our military continued work on building a deterrent. Make no mistake, Pakistan, as the world’s sixth largest nation, must have the capability to deter any and all foes. If we’re going to learn from the brilliant success of the Chinese, we should stay true to Mao’s philosophy on national defence, “All political power stems from the barrel of a gun”. IL-76 refuellers, Chinese ZD AWACS, Swedish Erieye AWACS, Block 52s, substantial numbers of JF-17s and more were inducted in our arsenal. Early in 2011, reports came out suggesting that Pakistan had the fastest growing nuclear programme in the world, with the country having built more weapons than its larger neighbour. Enough said on this topic.

The flip side of the campaign against Pakistan has been the romance with India. My personal perspective is that the West, attempting to recover from a fairly deadly economic mess, is trying its best to goad India into spending much of its treasure on western goods. This is not really as much a romance as it is a paid floor show. The money flows, so the music and dance go on. This economically motivated grandstanding (e.g. Obama’s Security Council overtures) is widely misreported as an earth shattering, fundamental change that has taken place immediately to our east. It appears the western press has, on this subject, decided to take a page out of the Bollywood Manual of Gross Overacting.

The contrast between Pakistan and India, in simple terms, is as follows. For much of our history, since 1947 till today, Pakistan has enjoyed significantly higher per capita income and a higher standard of living. It is only now that India has caught up. At the moment, there is roughly a $50 difference in India and Pakistan’s per -capita income. So one wonders where the sharp economic contrasts subjectively presented by all and sundry actually emanate from. Further, in a very fundamental way, Pakistan will always have the luxury of more land resources per capita, a lower population density and more natural resources per capita. We must reduce our population growth rate, but know that Pakistan’s peak population projection still leaves it better off than India is today, in terms of density.

Top all this off with the fact that it is not at all clear whether India’s growth will continue at the present pace, and nor is it clear that Pakistan will not return to the 8 or so percent GDP growth rate it achieved under Musharraf. Come mid 2011, the withdrawal in Afghanistan starts and over the next 2 years, Pakistan’s woes on account of the ill conceived, ill planned and pathetically executed campaign in Afghanistan will end. Then we can revisit each of the items on the list above and see whether we grow our remittances at a mere 18%, or much higher. Whether the KSE returns “only” 28%, or if it goes back to matching its performance as the World’s #1 bourse. Whether our software industry grows at a “mere” 20%, or whether we go to the 50% YoY growth we achieved just 5 years ago. Let us see… Let us see.

Not everyone is wearing blinders, by the way. The Austin, Texas based Stratfor organization is a highly respected strategic and foreign affairs forecasting organization. Headed by Mr. George Friedman, a celebrated futurist, author and security expert, Stratfor’s reports analysing the global security situation are purchased by the world’s largest companies. Following up on his predictions in his excellent book, “The Next 100 years”, Mr. Friedman has published a sequel, “The Next Decade”. In this book he analyzes the economic and security scenarios that will likely come about. What then, does Mr. Friedman think about India? The following:

“Pakistan is not going to simply collapse, and therefore will remain the persistent problem that India’s strategic policy will continue to pivot on. India lags behind China in its economic development, which is why it is not yet facing China’s difficulties. the next decade will see India surging ahead economically, but economic power by itself does not translate into national security. nor does it translate into the kind of power that can dominate the Indian Ocean. American interests are not served by making India feel overly secure. Therefore, US-Indian relations will deteriorate over the next ten years, even as the US leaves Afghanistan and even as US-Indian trade continues.”

Page 192, “The Next Decade”, George Friedman, Founder of Stratfor.

This is the kind of strategic perspective many in Pakistan miss as they are taken for a ride by the psychological onslaught – nothing short of psy-ops – being unleashed through much of the international press.

So, my friends, I have a different perspective on the future. I think that those who, out of fear, are being misled by stories of doom and gloom and are not investing in Pakistan (financially and otherwise), will regret having missed the opportunity. Now is the time to make a sensible bet on Pakistan. In the long term, it will turn out to be the best bet.

Share this:

An Exciting Future! While we won't quite get all the way here in 2011, things will start falling into place.

I just have a good feeling about 2011. I think it’s going to be a great year. I’ve thought a lot about where the optimism is coming from, and I don’t think it’s all subjective. Very important things happened in 2010, such as the incredibly pivotal visit by the Chinese Premier to Pakistan, Pakistan’s establishment drawing a very clear line with respect to interests it is not willing to compromise, wonderful progress with important programs like the JF-17, the arrival of product-focused Pakistani software companies like Pepper.pk who “ruled the world” with their #1 BlackBerry application, the rapid implementation of That Coal projects under the able leadership of Dr. Samar Mubarakmand and much else.

And in addition to all these things there’s the visible progress one can see unfolding in our cities. For example, with a hundred kilometers of brand spanking new, 6-lane highways (The Ring Road) in Lahore, commuting across the city in 2010 was so much easier than in 2009. New services like Qubee, added to the competition on the broadband side and Pakistan’s cellular market continued to grow with near 100M cell phones now in use in the country. To put things in perspective, that’s more cell phones than the number of people living in the UK and Italy put together!

Also, in defence of my optimism, I have to say that I haven’t fared badly with my predictions in the past. That’s not to say I couldn’t be off for 2011, but here’s a glimpse into the past:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010

2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009

3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

With that prelude, let’s get to it. Here is how I see 2011 unfolding:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

And there we have it. I’ll revisit some of these through the year as they prove to be false or true. Stay tuned, and more importantly, have an absolutely amazing 2011! Happy New Year!

Share this:

The Pakistan Technology Forum: startups, technology, hacking, DIY and much more...

After 3 years of being a blog, TechLahore is making the leap to being a little bit more than that… we’re launching the Pakistan Technology Forum today which we hope will serve as the favourite haunt for local techies, hackers, startup studs and tech business belles. The forum launches today at the following URL:

www.techlahore.com/forum

Head on over, make yourself a free account and let’s start the dialogue! At launch, the following forums have been created, though more will probably added along the way.

Share this:

The Old Building at Aitchison: Once called the "Chief's College", Aitchison is still an elite institution. Its students - future leaders of Pakistan - are increasingly turning away from the US.

I am an Aitchisonian, and proud of it. While it has been criticised for being an elitist institution, Aitchison has certainly produced leaders. Whether they be sportsmen like Imran Khan and Ramiz Raja, politicians like Farooq Leghari (former President of Pakistan), Balakh Sher Mazari (former Prime Minister) and Nawab Amir Muhammad Khan of Kalabagh (Governor), martyrs in our wars such as Lt. Col. Zafar Shinwari and Maj. Shah Rafi Alam or businessmen like Syed Babar Ali and Shahzada Monnoo, Aitchisonians are and have always been undoubtedly at the forefront of all segments of society. And because Aitchison is the cradle for a substantial part of Pakistan’s leadership, trends amongst its students are an interesting indicator of where Pakistan is headed, or at least what social trends are shaping its elite.

I left the school many years ago, in the 90s. At the time, students from a typical graduating H.Sc. (A’ Level – or the “13th” grade for our American readership) class mostly went abroad to pursue further education. Most of them had large land holdings, or family businesses to return to, so the few years spent abroad were a way to travel, get to know the world a bit better and develop a sense of independence before the eventual homecoming.

By far, the most popular destination for these students through the 70s, 80s and 90s was the US. Harvard, MIT, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, UT Austin, Northwestern and Rice were a few of the schools favoured by Aitchisonians. These Pakistani kids, almost exclusively from elite backgrounds, at an impressionable 17 or 18 years would depart to spend between 4 and 6 years in the US. During this time, these Aitchisonians didn’t just work towards higher degrees, they also experienced American college life, developed a sense of association with America and usually came back with good things to say about their experience. And when these kids went on to become industrialists, politicians, Army officers or leaders in other walks of life, they carried this favourable sentiment towards America with them.

The circumstances during much of the 20th century were such that living in a “friendly” America for a few years, conveniently obtaining visas and travelling there, and generally feeling comfortable in most American cities, was the usual experience for this highbrow elite. What they gained from their time in the US was a degree and a life experience. What America gained was powerful allies in a nuclear armed nation that is one of the most influential in the muslim world and also happens to be the sixth most populous state on earth.

Since 9/11, though, the US beauracracy and leadership has been like a turtle. Rather than understand the underlying issues, they have chosen to hide themselves behind a (series of) hard shell(s). While books can be and have been written about how these measures are unlikely to make America safer, and how the post 9/11 reaction that America exhibited has actually created larger armies of hardliners and potential terrorists in many countries of the world, let’s overlook that side of the debate for now. What is certainly clear is that by its extremely aggressive and, at times, clearly illogical and nonsensical policies, the US government has alienated its friends. In large numbers.

In fact, today, because of these US policies, Pakistanis who America would most want on their side, who America would most want to win over – the influential, powerful elite – are unwilling to even apply for an American visa for a summer vacation. With their money and influence, they can go anywhere on earth to enjoy themselves, to educate their children, to buy real estate or make investments. Why would they do so in a post 9/11 America that has shown too much insularity and insecurity, and very little understanding and acumen?

Looking at the list of schools to which the graduating  class of Aitchisonians is headed, one can confirm this trend. While a few students are still going to the US, the numbers have diminished drastically. What used to be 80%, is now a mere 20%.

Interestingly, those staying back in Pakistan and attending new, but immensely progressive and excellent  local universities like GIK Institute and NUST have increased in numbers from what used to be virtually zero in 1990, to a good 20% of the graduating class today. England, despite the train bombing episodes, has managed to be fairly even keel about visas, ease of travel and has managed to stay away from draconian steps such as implementing a “Patriot Act”, ala America. This more balanced reaction has allowed the UK to maintain – despite having a much smaller number of Universities to choose from – continued interest from the Pakistani elite.

Where do Aitchisonians go for higher education after they graduate? Not where they used to.

As you can see from the 2009 data above, almost a quarter of the Aitchison College H.Sc. graduating class stayed behind in Pakistan and chose to attend the country’s own elite universities. Frankly, I can’t remember any time during the 80s or 90s when this happened. Also, the US is now getting only 20% of Aitchison’s graduating class whereas it used to be the destination of choice for something between 65-80% of Aitchisonians. Canada and Germany have been huge gainers, because they are seen to be “friendly” and more relaxed.

So, what does all of this mean? For Pakistan it certainly means good things. First, by staying back, the most highbrow Pakistanis are stamping recently created local institutions of higher learning with their approval. Second, because these local schools are now providing education for the rich and powerful, they will also receive a lot more attention from this influential segment of society. Third, by heading for new destinations such as Canada and Germany, Aitchisonians are undoubtedly creating networks in those countries which will be beneficial to them and to Pakistan, in the form of business alliances, political liaisons and more.

However, this trend does not bode well for the US. Not only is it losing an opportunity to shape the future leaders of Pakistan, it is also increasingly seen as an unfriendly, harsh and arbitrary actor. You never know when you’ll get your visa stamped. It could be weeks, or it could be a year. You never know when some ill-trained, racist, angry-at-the-world type immigration officer will abuse the significant powers at his disposal to ruin your week. You never know when the next burst of anti Pakistan propaganda will hit the NYT or make the Fox/CNN airwaves. It’s all very disconcerting and uncomfortable, especially for Pakistanis who lead a life of privelege and couldn’t care two hoots for the economic opportunity American once represented.

By the way, while I have used Aitchison as a case study here, I know for a fact that trends at most other elite institutions in Pakistan are quite similar. America is out – or “tired” to use Wired magazine terminology. While Pakistan, Canada and Europe are in and most certainly, “wired”.

Of course, one has to wait for the myriad consequences of this significant shift to manifest themselves in public, inter-governmental and business affairs. In the next 5-10 years, as the post 9/11 generation of the Pakistani elite works itself into positions of power, what they see as a closed, unreasonable and biased America may no longer be automatically assumed to be a friend or even a desireable place, much less a country to be emulated or a beacon of freedom or democracy

Change is certainly afoot. The unintended consequences of the Bush reaction to 9/11 continue to unravel. Time will tell where things end up. From what I can see, America is causing itself more harm than its enemies ever could.

Share this:

Tom Friedman misses no opportunity to vilify muslims, Pakistanis and the middle east. He's at it again... (Image credit: Amazon.com)

I get it. There are neocons and then there are neocons. The first reference would be to the easy to identify variety; those of the Perle and Cheney ilk. Folks that don’t bother to pretend or cover their tracks. They shoot first and ask questions later. But then there’s the more insidious, surreptitious genus of war-mongers who operate in the garb of enlightened intellectuals. These camouflaged  operators are much the same on the inside but appear overtly thrilled at the prospect of the “flattening” of the world, of the developing nations coming into their own and also appear concerned with the Green revolution. Tom Friedman epitomizes this second category.

What does that have to do with us, you ask? And with entrepreneurs and technologists in Pakistan? Everything. People like Tom Friedman are pursuing an agenda of deliberate vilification and misinformation about the the muslim world in general, and Pakistan in particular. These cloak and dagger operators who masquerade as journalists and intellectuals must be answered by our pens. They must be exposed and the damage they have caused must be mitigated and reversed; damage, not only to us in this part of the world, but also to their own people, who they continue to mislead and fool, calling in the proverbial airstrike upon a mirage in the desert. They are making up an enemy that doesn’t exist, and in doing so, are filling the minds of Americans exposed to their writings in dying outlets such as the NYT, with hatred and mistrust of one fourth of humanity.

I didn’t quite realize how biased Friedman really was until, when reading his 2005 “The World is Flat”, I came across a mind boggling characterization injected by him. Never mind that he conveniently attributes it to an “Indian friend”. It’s mere inclusion speaks to the audacity with which Friedman carries out his campaign. In his book, comparing children in Pakistan with those in India, he claims that Pakistani children grow up resenting the richest residents of their neighbourhood, and harbour dreams of growing up and killing these neighbours to take over their wealth. This, in contrast to India, where children – altruistic as Indian young ‘uns are being counters to Tom Friedman’s caricatured young Pakistani devils – look upon the rich merely to forge aspirations and draw motivation for hard work.

“What complete balderdash and vomit-inducing nonsense”, I thought to myself upon reading this! Who is this man? And what the hell qualifies him to make such a mean-spirited, downright ludicrous characterization of a nation of 170 million people? Let me tell you. Tom Friedman knows NOTHING about Pakistan. NOTHING. Would Tom Friedman consider penning an article that generalizes the character of American children based on the acts of the perpetrators of Columbine? That would be ridiculous, right? But apparently it isn’t so to cast aspersions on Pakistani children even in the absence of a Pakistani Columbine. And aspersions that stand on nothing less than an interview with someone who is certainly not friendly toward Pakistan. Perhaps quite the opposite. High journalistic standards, my foot!

Based on this alone, Friedman had won the “This guy is a complete jackass” award as far as I was concerned. But this malevolent individual didn’t stop here. He had to keep on keeping on, spreading the fear, uncertainty and doubt in American society about the mysterious and dark Middle East; a region Tom claims to know so well based on his short trips there, including one under the watchful eye of the Pentagon, as an embedded reporter in Iraq.

In his most recent book (Hot, Flat and Crowded) – one which I did NOT buy, but instead chose to read a borrowed copy of for fear of funding the lunatic – Friedman makes the case for how America must once again lead the world by initiating a green revolution. Good goal, no doubt. But leave it to Friedman to inject venom even in a treatise such as this. Is this man a professional journalist or a professional character assassin of muslims and Pakistanis? The fact that the book is written in a rather arrogant tone might be dismissed as amusing. After all, here is a supposedly objective reporter making the case for the US leading in protection of the environment, an area where it is light years behind the rest of the world. Why? Just because the US is the US? How about a better argument than manifest destiny, Mr. Friedman? Considering that the USG hasn’t even ratified the Kyoto protocol, that it is one of the biggest consumers of polluting goods and has a per-capita energy consumption 7-8 times higher than much-maligned China’s, maybe the US should perhaps fix its own act or at least not impede other nations diplomatic efforts to reduce pollution before aiming to become a world leader. No?

Such arguments about divinely ordained rights to global leadership aside, the narrative that acts as the foundation for Mr. Friedman’s book includes such gems as these: First, Mr. Friedman claims that US import of Oil helps terrorists because OPEC countries are somehow using these revenues to fund Al-Qaeda and similar terrorist organizations. Nevermind that Saudi Arabia, more than any other country, would want Osama’s head on a platter. Nevermind that more people have died in Pakistan at the hands of Al-Qaeda than all US 9/11 and War on Terror deaths COMBINED, and that Pakistan fields a significantly greater number of soldiers against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda than all the nations in ISAF, including the US. Yes, Mr. Friedman, we must believe that the Government of Saudi Arabia uses oil revenues to fund Al-Qaeda, because without this, how will we hate those devil “moslems”? What a twisted world you live in.

Mr. Friedman goes on to tell us that US funded and run (specifically, Dept. of Defense) “American schools” are the shining lights of learning and scholarship in muslim countries, which otherwise have pathetic schooling. Mr. Friedman uses the example of Qatar to illustrate how the masses in Doha wept and cried upon the threatened closing of the American school. Get an education, Mr. Friedman (pun intended). Look up the performance of Pakistani O and A Level students from Aitchison, Lahore Grammar School, Karachi Grammar School, Beaconhouse, City School and numerous other 100% Pakistani institutions. Pakistani students perform better than any in the world when it comes to international examinations such as the H.Sc. Sc. O-level and A-level. Yes, Mr. Friedman, in the world. And before you tell us that the definition of the world here extends to only the commonwealth countries, please do consider how many American high school students would be able to succesfully navigate an A’Level Physics or Math exam. Compare the syllabi and chew on that.

Do your research, Mr. Friedman, because the cute yet misleading anecdotal accounts you use to draw sweeping conclusions are nothing but a thinly veiled means of vilifying societies, nations and a people against whom you seem to hold some sort of a toxic grudge. Contrast the foreign university placement, grades, syllabi or any other measure of academic achievement between any of these Pakistani schools and the American schools in Pakistan. Better yet, ask the students of an LGS or Aitchison what the reputation of the local American schools is. You will hear the same answer everywhere. They lack academic rigour and are simply not in the same league educationally. That’s not to cast blanket aspersions on all American schools everywhere, for I don’t want to follow in your footsteps. But open your eyes. There is a world beyond what you would like your audience to limit their awareness to.

American education, american thinking, american democracy, american business, american capitalism, american XYZ are not the fix-all panacea for every problem mankind is confronted with. In fact, if you take your blinders off you might even discover that the roots of many of the Earth’s current challenges have to do with the quality of life people in America have enjoyed since 1945. Everyone else on this planet had to work for a living. We had to export desirable commodities to earn foreign exchange which could then be used to buy things we ourselves could not make. America, in the post-WW-2 scenario, positioned the Dollar as a global currency that allowed it to buy anything from anyone at any price, printing the money and exporting the inflation. How much of this is ingenuity and inherent greatness, and how much of it is the good fortune of having played the role of a weight that tipped the scales over in a war between two already bloodied and exhausted opponents?

In a recent piece published on Salon.com, Glen Greenwald examines other gems from Friedman which just further underscore his fundamental bias against a part of the world he claims to unbiasedly report on, which he claims to educate the American people on, and which he claims to be knowledgeable about. Here is a particularly interesting quote:

ROSE: Now that the war is over, and there’s some difficulty with the peace, was it worth doing?

FRIEDMAN: I think it was unquestionably worth doing, Charlie. I think that, looking back, I now certainly feel I understand more what the war was about . . . . What we needed to do was go over to that part of the world, I’m afraid, and burst that bubble. We needed to go over there basically, and take out a very big stick, right in the heart of that world, and burst that bubble. . . .

And what they needed to see was American boys and girls going from house to house, from Basra to Baghdad, and basically saying: which part of this sentence do you understand? You don’t think we care about our open society? . . . . Well, Suck. On. This. That, Charlie, was what this war was about.

We could have hit Saudi Arabia. It was part of that bubble. Could have hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. That’s the real truth.

Here is a link to the Salon.com piece.

If you are visited by disbelief, know that you have company. If you are wondering how an ass like this can sell so many books, realize that vilification, drama and rabble rousing are the stuff of best sellers. And if you are appalled, as am I, please be sure not to buy Friedman’s books, or let your friends buy them. Borrow a library copy, buy from a used book store, read an extract online or borrow them from someone who has – sadly – already funded this man’s myopic crusade. Don’t fatten him any further, please.

Greenwald does do a pretty good job of exposing Tom Friedman for what he is; a right-wing nutcase masquerading as a tree hugging intellectual. Someone who continues to support a war waged under false pretenses which led to the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent people making the goody-goody case for a “Green revolution”… about as credible as a pig with wings, to be honest. It just doesn’t add up.

Before I conclude this post, let me ask one thing of you. If you agree with any of the above, please do yourself a favour and don’t keep your views bottled up. Express them; counter Friedman and his propaganda. Whether by educating friends and family who might still think of him as an innocuous character, or by countering his agenda on your blogs, in comment sections, on online publications and in your schools, universities and any other fora you have access to. It is time that we Pakistanis take a stand and tell our side of the story. Tom Friedman can stick his biased and hateful views about us where the sun don’t shine. We will not take this vilification lying down. His lies must be countered and a balanced view of reality must be presented to anyone willing to know the truth.

Share this: