The magical Prof. Rosling forecasts health and prosperity for the developing world

For many hundreds of years, the West has symbolized development, prosperity and riches, while the rest of the world - the horrendously named, “Third World” in particular - has been synonymous with backwardness, disease and hunger. Let us, for the moment, forget that much of this disparity was actually a result of exploitation by colonialists from the West, and let us also ignore the fact that to this day, all too frequently, Western influence is exerted in most developing countries to the detriment of the local society. Despite the miserable history behind the exploitative abuse of the Rest of the World, the good news is that in the 21st century almost all countries will catch up with the wellness, HDI and wealth indicators of the West.

We’ve covered the case of Pakistan numerous times in the past. As the seventh largest country in the world, blessed with trillions of dollars of natural resources, there is no question that Pakistan will emerge as a power on the global stage. This will happen despite shortcomings in political leadership. The fundamental trends propelling Pakistan toward a developed future are far more powerful and basic than temporary considerations such as who occupies the Prime Minister’s house in a given term. 

For much of the rest of the world, while perhaps not to the same extent as Pakistan, development and a general uplift of HDI indicators is nonetheless inevitable. How is this happening? Is it because of increased mobility between populations? Better communication? The democratization of technology? The rise of alternate power centers like China, which have very different goals than the West? The growing sense of self-identity and desire for freedom in erstwhile underpopulated and easily exploited resource rich countries? Perhaps the answer is “all of the above”.

Prof. Hans Rosling, statistician, friend to the Third World, TED fellow and marvelous story teller, shows us how this empowerment is unfolding and when China, as a reference point, will reach the per-capita GDP of the US. While China’s rise is praise worthy and phenomenal, the reality is that as long as we are able to avoid major wars, over the medium-term, much of the world will achieve high standards of living and wealth. Development and prosperity can no longer remain the exclusive domain of the post-colonial West. Good news all around. And here it is from Prof. Rosling himself:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjVHvC9EeB4

Share this:

Lots of stuff will happen in 2012, but the world will not end. Sorry Mayans! (Image credit: TheAtlanticWire)

2012 is going to be a very interesting year. Elections are coming up in two very important countries, Pakistan (in early 2013) and the United States (2012). The US’ confrontation with Iran has both countries making threats and accusations and heading in a direction that seems to be escalatory. Further, the US has retreated from Iraq and violence there seems to be at an upswing. As someone said, the US-Iraq war is over. Iran won. Then, we also have the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan which has led to much drama and desperation on the part of the ISAF and NATO forces; as we predicted last year, the US is now openly saying that the Taliban are not a US enemy, the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, has been removed from the FBI’s most wanted list and US diplomats are now negotiating with the Taliban with no preconditions. In that the Taliban have not laid down their weapons and continue to control over 75% of Afghan territory, these negotiations appear to be more about NATO giving in to the Taliban position and figuring out how to withdraw in haste than the opposite.

And that’s just the geo-strategic picture. Lots of exciting technology is going to be introduced also this year, and all eyes are on Europe and America as the economic troubles enter their fifth year. Will this finally be the bottom and will we start heading in the right direction? I thought this would have happened in 2011, but I was wrong. So, what happens in 2012? Read on to find out.

Political and Geo-strategic Predictions

1. The PPP government in Pakistan will not be removed. They may choose to go for early elections once the Senate elections are completed, but no other force (Army, PTI etc.) will compel them to leave office. This will be good as it sets the tone for a long running democratic dispensation which self-adjusts to find a workable solution to governance in Pakistan.

2. The PPP will pull off a successful senate election, strengthening the President.

3. Memogate will not lead to Asif Zardari’s resignation.

4. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.

5. Romney will come pretty close to removing Obama, but Obama will scrape through. Personally, with all of Obama’s broken promises and false mantras of change, we would rather Romney win in his stead, not because we support Romney, but simply because we feel there should be some accountability for such a disastrous and damaging run in office.

6. The PTI will emerge as a political force post the next election, but nowhere near the numbers being claimed by Imran Khan who has suggested that it will be a Tsunami and will take an outright majority. Not even close.

7. 2012 will mark Pakistan’s strategic goodbye to America. There is still lots of discussion about whether regular business-as-usual relations between Pakistan and the US will resume, but we don’t think they will in the foreseeable future. In fact, the NATO massacre of Pakistani troops precipitated what had to happen anyway. Pakistan has simply had enough of the US pushing it around and asking for “more” when the US themselves, along with all their other allies, have done far less than Pakistan in prosecuting the WoT. The absolutely false claims of $20B in “aid”, which have been made repeatedly, have done nothing other than simply insult, irritate and anger both the Pakistani establishment and its populace. First off, it’s not as if this $20B was the figure of assistance for any single year. This paltry sum, which pales in comparison to the $600+B annual US defence budget, and the $1T+ spent on the lost war in Afghanistan, covers TEN years of supposed (and imaginary) assistance to Pakistan. Second, $20B have not actually been transferred, so the figure itself is nonsense. Third, the bulk of the money actually dispensed by the US has been for reimbursements, i.e. money ALREADY SPENT by Pakistan which the US OWES it. Fourth, the rest of this money has been spent through US agencies, contractors and mostly, on US goods. This means the effective value of every $1 spent by US AID is probably less than 25c of benefit to Pakistan. With the hefty, fees due to overpaid American consultants and vendors along with the unnecessary spending on transportation, very little actual benefit is accrued. In a nutshell, the real value of all US “AID” to Pakistan stands probably at 2-3% of the $80+Billion Pakistan has lost in the WoT. To top off the monetary exploitation, Pakistan has been bullied, the US press and media have been used as a veritable weapon in an unrelenting disinformation war against Pakistan and Pakistan’s interests (e.g. the IP(C) pipeline with Iran), on fundamental issues unrelated to the US or the WoT, have been repeatedly threatened. This simply cannot go on. We also believe that the death of this last US-Pakistan alliance will lead to Pakistan’s migration into the Asian camp, where it will work increasingly in concert with Russia and China in future, and will never again (at least for the next 30-50 years) consider an alliance with America.

8. Despite rumours, Gen. Pasha and Gen. Kiyani will not secure further extensions.

9. The bluster doesn’t past muster. The US will not attack Iran in 2012.

Technology Predictions

1. Windows 8 will be a significant force this year. It will rekindle interest in Windows as a consumer OS as a large number of tablets and phones will support it. 2012 is when Microsoft will really launch its counterattack against Apple, but unlike in the past, this will not be based on stealing marketshare from the iPhone, but grabbing as much interest from non-Smartphone and Blackberry users as possible. Windows Phone applications will touch 100,000 by the end of the year.

2. Microsoft will buy Nokia’s Smartphone division.

3. RIM had a terrible year, but the new Blackberry 10 products will begin to stop the bleeding. RIM still provides the most secure solution, and it is generating north of $5B in revenue every quarter, so it is a force to be reckoned with. There will be a lot of discussion around a RIM acquisition in 2012, but it will not happen.

4. Android will continue to grow at the expense of the iPhone and most of all, Symbian and RIM. In the end, though, we don’t quite understand what Android does for Google. In many respects, the fundamental desire Google had of owning the endpoint to ensure that access to its services would be smooth and uninterrupted, seems premised on the assumption that non-Google OSs somehow wouldn’t allow access (or at least, fair, open access) to Google. I am not sure this makes much sense, since Google services are available and used on all non-Android OSs. Either way, Android is definitely going to grow market share in 2012, probably by another 5-10 points.

5. Ultrabooks are going to be BIG this year. They will also, in concert with Windows 8, lead a PC renaissance which should stem Apple’s growth on the PC/Laptop side of the house. My gut tells me that Apple’s desktop/laptop marketshare will grow at 60-70% the rate at which it grew in 2011. Ultrabooks will put a dent…

6. The next iPad will come out with a) 2-3MP display resolution b) reduced entry level model price c) Siri integration d) dual core 1.2+Ghz processor. However, momentum for non iPad tablets will continue, especially with the advent of Windows 8 slabs. By the end of 2012, less than half of all tablets sold will be Apple iPads.

Financial Predictions

1. The KSE will post 10% growth this year. First, as explained below, the favourable USD-Rs. exchange ratio will make Pakistani stocks cheaper for foreign investors, and second, the continued reduction of WoT related violence inside the country will bring the stability necessary for growth in investor confidence. If it weren’t for 2012 being the run-up to an election and numerous political events punctuating the year (Musharraf’s return, court proceedings, PTI “jalsas”, Senate elections, pre-election politics and so on), this number would have been higher. In part, growth will also be helped by the beginnings of a global recovery in 2012.

2. The Pakistani Rs. will touch an exchange rate of Rs. 95 to $1 USD during the year. It may go as high as Rs. 100, but 95 is within reason. Some repayments to the IMF are coming up which will pressure the foreign reserve. We’ll get through it without all that much trouble, but a rise in the exchange rate can be safely assumed.

3. The Dow will show modest growth, around 5% for the year. The early part of 2012 will be marked with some optimism, with a dip hitting the middle of the year. The last few months of the year will show a recovery powered by fundamental improvements in economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, and some control over federal spending finally kicking in. The huge amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets also need to be spent at some stage and if 2012 looks safe, CFOs will let go of the purse strings, kicking off M&A and spurring some market growth.

4. Pakistan’s GDP will grow at about 4% during 2012.

5. There will be a reduction in the unemployment rate in the US, probably by about .3-.5%, ending at about 8.2% or so in December 2012.

6. Netsol touched a peak in 2011 and then fell to the ground in terms of stock value. 2012 will see improvement, but a peak of $1 is probably optimistic. Nonetheless, some money can be made on Netsol if it is bought around 40c and sold when it approaches 60-65c during 2012.

[Techlahore takes no responsibility for any financial projections or stock predictions. We are not advocating the purchase or sale of any security and are providing our opinions purely for general interest purposes. The reader assumes all responsibility for all his/her financial decisions, including the sale or purchase of any security.]

Share this:

MIT's famed dome... coming to a PC, laptop or tablet near you! (Image credit: Bustachange.com)

Someday, someone in an appropriately empowered government position in Pakistan needs to take a bold step forward and break through the bureaucracy and red tape government is despised for. There are so many incredibly high value, low cost initiatives to take up in areas as diverse as agriculture, education, energy and information technology that the shortage is not one of ideas, but simply that of initiative and vision.

Here at TechLahore, we’ve discussed some of these ideas before. Today, an announcement made by MIT compels us to talk of another…

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as one of the world’s foremost technology and engineering schools, needs no introduction. It is nothing less than one of America’s greatest strategic assets. MIT has produced graduates who have gone on to conduct pioneering research in defence, space technology, IT, material sciences, genetics and numerous other areas, advancing the state of the art for their country and the world at large. By some estimates, MIT graduates have contributed almost one trillion dollars worth of market capitalization to the US bourses. But as you may have heard, it’s not easy to get into MIT. Seats are limited, competition is tough and most of all, it’s expensive and remote for most of the citizens of the world. But what if the MIT experience could be bottled up and shipped across the internet to anyone who wanted to benefit from it? While it wouldn’t be exactly akin to attending classes at MIT physically – certainly the environment and some measure of interactivity would be lacking – it would, nonetheless, be a giant step forward.

MIT took this very step, in fact, some years ago, by launching their OpenCourseWare initiative. In a variety of formats, ranging from audio, slides to fully taped video lectures, a select group of courses were put online for anyone in the world to access without charge. You can learn more about OCW by visiting this MIT website. Now, MIT is taking this program to the next level. M.I.T.x as the new online learning initiative will be called, will expand the amount of content available and will also offer completion certificates to candidates who test well at the end of the self-paced “term”. This certificate will not be an MIT degree, nor will it bear the name of MIT, but will be granted by a non-profit set-up specifically for this purpose as an MIT affiliate. Nice as that might be, certificates and degrees are essentially pieces of paper. The real value is in the learning process and the acquired knowledge. Exposing oneself to a well designed, cutting edge curriculum, the added benefit of virtual presence in MIT classrooms through the magic of internet video, interaction with other learners via online discussion boards and finally, being “tested” without spending a single cent or leaving the comfort of home, is truly a revolutionary development!

Can this program be embraced by the Provincial or Federal governments in Pakistan? Can we deliver the MIT curriculum in classrooms at our institutions and use local teachers in a supportive role, making up for any loss of interactivity? Can we launch programs where, like the 100,000 free laptop distribution made by the Gov. of the Punjab, laptops and tablets can be gifted to any student that shows a completion certificate for some number of MIT engineering classes? Could we augment our virtual university curricula with this MIT content? What about providing free DVDs with all of this content to anyone in Pakistan who is interested and may not yet have the broadband connection to easily access the video component? How about selecting a few of the MIT freshmen courses and broadcasting them on TV – not only to teach, but also to spread awareness about this great resource? How about translating the videos into Urdu and even regional languages? There’s so much that can be done with this content… and with not much investment!

But with that said, even if the Government, as usual, doesn’t do anything, you and I can at least spread awareness about this great resource. To the extent we interact with learners, college students, those who are curious about science and engineering, folks that are not happy with the quality of education they might be receiving at a local institution – anyone with an interest – we can tell them about this resource. We can share MIT OCW videos with our friends on Facebook so they know this resource exists and can tell others. We can, when we have a few moments to spare, invest an hour or two to perhaps translate a video in Urdu. Anything we can do to spread news of this great resource and enhance its value will be of tremendous benefit to Pakistan.

This is a great step towards democratizing access to the world’s best education. And it’s not the only earth shattering, historically unparalleled change we’re seeing enabled through IT. It’s practically a new world out there, with more potential than has been available at any time in human history. Soon, location, geography and to a great extent – money – will no longer matter in very important ways. And with all of this magnificent change unfolding around us, it’s our job to go out and make something of these fabulous new opportunities. Let’s make it happen!

Share this:

TechLahore's 2011 predictions turned out to be the least accurate EVER! Hmph!

We’ve been publishing since 2007 and TechLahore is hence not exactly a “new” blog. As institutions age, they accrue tradition, and TechLahore is no different. Our December evaluations of the past year’s predictions have been happening now for the past several years. In January, we’ll follow-up with a new set of predictions for 2012.

Here are the past evaluations, in case you’re interested:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010
2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009
3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

So, without further ado, let’s see how we fared this year:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

Spot on. The parliament is here and if the Army Chief’s recent statements are to be believed, no coup is in the offing.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

The Congress government has become a symbol of inefficiency and corruption in India. India has actually fallen further on the Transparency corruption index. Manmohan has lost the Mr. Clean image for sure. I’ll claim full credit here.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Despite the fact that the Republicans were busy ripping each other apart, the Congress being a veritable ball and chain around the Presidency has resulted in a low approval rating. We said we’d use the Rasmussen Reports as our measure, and as per the latest poll in December 2011, Obama is still roughly where he started the year (-13).

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

According to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, the number of deaths in 2011 fell by almost 40%! This was good news for Pakistanis, and in fact, the last half of the year saw an almost complete halt in terror attacks throughout the country. The few instances that did occur were limited to checkposts near or in the FATA areas.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

NATO has done almost nothing against the Taliban in Afghanistan. A couple of half-hearted thrusts here and there, with no real resolve for meeting any tangible goals. They have also talked about allowing the Taliban to setup an office in a Gulf state and have been engaged with negotiations with the so-called “enemy”. In fact, the only military action NATO engaged in this past year which made waves was an attack on two Pakistani checkposts, resulting in the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani soldiers. Viz the Taliban, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is pretty much finished. What remains is a negotiated settlement that allows the US room to depart without being chased.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

The number of drone strikes this year was significantly less than last year. Here is the data.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Hear hear! Android is now the defacto King of the mobile OSs. Android now accounts for 53% of smartphone shipments. I had said the US market share for Android will increase to 33%, and in reality, according to Nielsen it has gone past 42%. So I’ll take this one…

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Yes and yes. Tablets were THE story of the year and non Apple tablets are now coming out the wazoo. As I had predicted, not only did the iPad’s market share fall, it fell a bit faster than I had predicted. According to IDC, it stands at 68% going into the holidays.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Apps grew much faster than even I had predicted. Apple announced that there are 500,000 iOS apps. Android stands at 250,000 apps. And Microsoft Phone7 is at 25,000. Blackberry hasn’t grown as fast, but net-net, the prediction I made of the total number of mobile apps exceeding 700,000 has come true. We are actually probably closer to a million than 750,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Measured in almost every way, 2011 was a great year for Pakistani software. At APICTA, Pakistanis won more awards than ever before. Whereas 2010 saw one Pakistani mobile app make it to World #1, in 2011 there were two more. And the growth we are seeing has made many experts very hopeful. Current estimates suggest that we will exceed $10B by 2020.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

I felt a shudder when I read that part about the new iPhone not being particularly “innovative”. Look at the new device. It wasn’t even a significant enough upgrade to merit the iPhone “5″ moniker. Apple stuck with 4S. And rightly so. The antenna issue is fixed, and other than the bundling of Siri, which was available as a free download for older iPhones prior to Apple’s acquisition of the company, there isn’t much to write home about. Android has left the iPhone in the proverbial dust. Yes, the iPhone is very much a market leader from an ease of use and proliferation of apps perspective, but Android phones now have faster radios, better screens, faster processors, more storage, better cameras and pretty much everything else.

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Windows 8 not only provides better visualization, it has an entirely reinvented Metro based UI for tablets. It does in fact standardize 64 bit and yes, there isn’t going to be a 2011 release. However, as predicted the CTP was launched this year. I’ll take this one… I was even right about it being an honest to goodness PC OS – one click and you’re back to the traditional Windows desktop.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Cloud has overtaken the IT airwaves and while Virtualization remains a persistent meme, it is getting less airplay because it is becoming part of the “assumed” stack of capabilities. PaaS infrastructure has definitely grown, along with IaaS ala Amazon. Inexpensive PCs and tablets have been a core IT story throughout 2011, whether it be the Indian Akaash tablet, the Ainovo novo 7, the Amazon Kindle Fire or the about to be released Raspberry Pi. It’s all about sub-hundred dollar price points… So now let’s look at my VMware stock price prediction. I said there won’t be a huge increase because virtualization’s cool-factor will start to subside, but it won’t be significant enough to warrant a big price drop. Well, VMware stands at around $84 right now. A little less than last year, but just a little, as predicted.

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Wrong. Wateen is around. Crippled and in need of direction. But around.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Wrong. Netsol didn’t have a good year. I was right that it would close about $2.25, because it touched $2.39 in February. But it’s been a slide since then. So even though I was half right at least about the annual high, I won’t take this one.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

Wrong. GDP was actually 2.37%, below what I had expected. Shucks.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

Wrong. The KSE, along with world markets, declined. There was a high around 12,700 in January 2011, but the market trended southward given everything that has happened in the world from an economic standpoint this year. It ended the year about 4% in the red.

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Half right. The Dow went up by about 6%, but the Nasdaq declined by slightly less than 2%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

Absolutely spot on. In Jan, unemployment was at 9%. By Nov 2011 it had declined by .4% to 8.6%.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

Wrong. While the housing market does appear to be turning around, it didn’t happen in 2011. There was probably a roughly 3% decline in average home prices across the US.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

That’s just how it happened. Didn’t touch Rs. 100 to the dollar, but we’re at 90. So that does translate into a little over 5% weakening through the year.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

This one is really hard to call. I have done a few informal tests with a few plots throughout the city and while there hasn’t been a decline, it’s not clear to me whether the asking price is something that is attracting buyers readily. I just don’t have enough data on this one to make a call. If you look at the lahorerealestate.com data for plots in Defence etc. the prices have risen just slightly.

So, where did we end up? 15 right (I’ll claim half credit for a couple) and 7 wrong. I think that might be the worst I’ve ever done. Most of where I fell short had to do with the economy in the US and Pakistan. Essentially, I was expecting a faster recovery than what has materialized. So what do I think will happen in 2012? Well, stay tuned for that post in January! Till then, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Share this:

Pakistan buries its dead after an unprovoked NATO attack killed 24 servicemen

Stratfor is one of the most respected strategic forecasting organizations in the world. They provide strategic intelligence to large corporations – including all the major financial institutions – and  a significant part of their membership is comprised of former and serving military officers in the western world. George Friedman, the Founder of Stratfor, has also written numerous books regarding the future of the world from a strategic and political perspective. Two of his books which I have read and particularly enjoyed are “The Next Decade” and “The Next 100 Years“. While I don’t agree with all of Mr. Friedman’s conclusions, a lot of his perspectives are right on the money. Here at TechLahore, we’ve previously featured Stratfor’s forecasting and you can take a look at that post here.

Much has been written and said about the most recent flareup in Pakistan-US relations. The crisis resulted from an unprovoked NATO attack on two Pakistani checkposts, leading to the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani army personnel, including two officers. In response, Pakistan ordered the eviction of US troops from a key air base in Balochistan, shut down all NATO supply lines, ordered troops on the border to fire at will in the even that NATO violates Pakistan’s territorial borders again and is undertaking a full review of all cooperation with NATO. What is very important to consider is how the immediate future will be shaped in context of this incident. Will this result in greater tensions between the two countries? A shooting war perhaps? Does NATO have the upper hand? Does Pakistan hold any strategic cards? These are all questions that are being asked by millions in Pakistan, the wider South/Central Asian region and indeed, the West.

What complicates the situation further is that while there are two land supply routes that can be used; one through Pakistan, and the other through Russia and Central Asian States (i.e. the Northern Distribution Network, or NDN), suddenly, both these supply lines have been put at risk. The supply line via Pakistan is by far the most inexpensive and efficient, by a factor of 10, while the NDN is long, circuitous and dependent on the cooperation of not one, but numerous countries. That wouldn’t have been so bad if all the countries through which the NDN runs were pro-NATO, but unfortunately for the US military, that is not the case. Russia, in particular, incensed over US efforts to deploy a missile shield in Europe, and also due to an increasingly belligerent American Middle East agenda which now seeks to implement regime change by force in both Syria and Iran, has openly threatened to cut off all NATO’s remaining supply lines.

Stratfor’s take on all of this, is as follows:

The United States and NATO have been exposed as waging a war that depended on the willingness of first Pakistan and now increasingly Russia to permit the movement of supplies through their respective territories. Were they both to suspend that privilege, the United States would face the choice of going to war to seize supply lines — something well beyond U.S. conventional capacity at this time — or to concede the war. Anytime a force depends on the cooperation of parties not under its control to sustain its force, it is in danger.

The issue is not whether the threats are carried out. The issue is whether the strategic interest the United States has in Afghanistan justifies the risk that the Russians may not be bluffing and the Pakistanis will become even less reliable in allowing passage. In the event of strategic necessity, such risks can be taken. But the lower the strategic necessity, the less risk is tolerable. This does not change the strategic reality in Afghanistan. It simply makes that reality much clearer and the threats to that reality more serious. Washington, of course, hopes the Pakistanis will reconsider and that the Russians are simply blowing off steam. Hope, however, is not a strategy.

In a nutshell, NATO has no option but to back off and make nice with both Russia and Pakistan. In Mr. Friedman’s opinion, there are only two options. The first is to concede the war in Afghanistan and run. And the second is to fight yet another war to secure an over-land supply route. The second option, he explains, is impossible and beyond the current means and capabilities of both the US and NATO.

Ignoring the emotion and the rhetoric, we agree with Mr. Friedman. The US has lost the war in Afghanistan and nothing can change that. However, the stakes at the moment involve a safe retreat vs. an absolute, unmitigated military disaster which would dwarf Vietnam. Given these two choices, the US and NATO will have to back off. As a consequence, the alliance with Pakistan will continue, but now, more so on Pakistan’s terms.

Share this:

Wheat fields in Haripur Hazara. Pakistan can be an agricultural powerhouse with just a little strategic thinking on the part of its government. (Photo credit: Daniyal Gilani, Flickr)

For 5,000 years, the economic well being of the people of what is now Pakistan has been secured through agriculture. Even as Pakistan has rapidly modernized over the last 6 decades since independence, a very large component of the economy is still agriculture based. And in these days of population pressure globally, shortfalls of cultivable land, food security issues and rising food prices, this can be a tremendous asset for the country. Our strength in agriculture and farming is borne out by the numbers. We are the world’s 4th largest producer of milk, we export more than $24B worth of textiles annually based on the strength of our cotton production, we have one of the largest populations of farm animals – over 50M – in the country, and our wheat production stands at number 6 in the world. There are many other areas where Pakistan has unassailable competitive advantages, for example, in the fact that the variety of citrus produced in Pakistan is far more diverse than in any other country of the world, or that the mangoes grown in Pakistan are – without doubt – the richest and best on the globe.

Yet, so much more can be done. I have always been of the strong belief that Pakistan actually has no economic problems beyond mismanagement and poor planning. There are no inherent, structural reasons why Pakistan cannot rapidly develop to the levels of a first-world economy, and take its population of 180M along with it. There are very simple and – in the grand scheme of things – tiny steps that we can take to completely alter our economic picture. Let’s take a part of our agricultural sector; wheat production, as an example. We produce 24M tonnes of wheat per year, which is quite a bit. Yet, our per acre yield, at between 23-25 Maunds per acre, is the lowest in the world amongst major agri economies. If we increased yield to Australian or European levels (as high as 70 Maunds per acre), we would have an excess of between 30-40M tonnes of exportable wheat per year, from the existing land under cultivation. This would mean a minimum of an extra $10B of exports annually, given current international wheat prices. The reality is that these prices have been increasing over the past few years and with the world population expected to hit close to 10B in 2050, they won’t be going in the other direction any time soon.

Our own domestic consumption is in the neighbourhood of 20M tonnes per year. So the difference between 24M tonnes, and 70M tonnes is massive from an economic perspective. It is the difference between merely fulfilling our own needs and reaping a windfall by exporting a precious commodity, and one of strategic importance for almost the entire agri-poor middle east; a region which is not only close to us geographically, but with which we also share strong cultural and diplomatic ties. To put things in perspective, just this one change alone – with all other things staying the same – would mean an immediate increase of 5.2% in our per-capita income. Not only this, the fact that this would be $10B in foreign exchange, the need for IMF programmes would simply not exist. Which further means that the conditionalities and high-interest rate debt servicing also goes away. So the net-positive effects of just this one small thing would be tremendous and would result in immeasurable benefits by freeing up what is spent in debt servicing today, so that it can be redirected to high-yield infrastructure and human resource development investments.

The reason I used the example of wheat was just to illustrate how simple it is for Pakistan to make a quantum leap forward, developmentally and economically. With nothing other than basic technology – which we are in possession of – the adoption of best practices, but most importantly, the political will, we could revolutionize our agricultural sector, and hence our economy. If a new government were elected to power tomorrow and all it did was focus on a three point agenda of 1) Bringing wheat yields to Australian levels 2) Implementing drip irrigation – which saves up to 60% of the water used in flood irrigation and 3) Investing in export-quality food processing industries, this alone would make Pakistan the world’s fastest growing economy. It would free us of all water woes, as 70+% of our water usage is for agriculture, and 60% of that is wasted due to our use of ancient flood techniques. Drip irrigation is far more efficient, and could reduce our national water consumption by up to a staggering 50%! If we could export the excellent halal meat, mangoes, citrus, flowers and other agricultural products we produce, not as bargain basement prices, but in processed, high-quality forms (by transforming our milk into branded cheese products, for example), it would bring revenue streams we have never had and connect them to the poorest Pakistanis, while earning mountains of foreign exchange for the country.

This is a small example of how incredibly small, inexpensive programs can have a massive impact on the national economy, our growth rates and the future of Pakistan. We hope those in power, and those with influence, will finally pay heed and stop artificially quelling Pakistan’s natural growth rate; a number which will approach or exceed 10% with even the smallest of strategic investments in promising sectors like agriculture.

Share this:

Karachi's beautiful Sheraton hotel was the venue for P@SHA's 2011 Information Technology Awards

A big shout out to Jehanara, President of the Pakistan Software Houses Association (P@SHA), and her management team for organizing a brilliant event last night at Karachi’s gorgeous Sheraton Hotel.

The 8th Annual P@SHA’s ICT (Information and Communication Technology) awards were wonderfully organized, fairly judged and brilliantly presented. The tremendous momentum and growth of Pakistan’s IT industry is plain for all to see and this Awards ceremony is a great showcase. Each year, the entries have been getting more and more sophisticated and wide ranging. A fair number of new companies have been recognized in the 2011 Awards which bodes well for the industry’s future.

If you’d like to check out the list of winners and learn more about the awards, you should click on over to the official P@SHA Awards website.

Share this:

This is not a PG-13 post. If you are offended by bad language, please move on.

In Vino Veritas, as it is said in latin, in wine there is truth. And sometimes that truth can be ugly. So ugly, that it might be more comfortable to suppress it and continue on as if the ugliness never happened. The truth I wish to share with you is unfortunately of this ilk and I must confess that I fought my natural urge to smother it and bury it before anyone else could find out. It wasn’t easy.

I just arrived in Lahore a few hours ago, and witnessed one of the vilest displays of behaviour I have yet seen at 37,000 feet. And I have seen my fair share. The short version of events goes something like this: On my flight from the US, there was an Afghani man, perhaps in his late 30s, sitting next to a young Pakistani boy and an older Pakistani gentleman, who was travelling with his wife. The Afghani chap was very keen on the hard stuff and, with every meal, ordered himself a couple of drinks. This continued until our incredibly polite South African flight attendant refused to serve him. At this point, the Afghani turned to the young boy seated next to him and asked him to order on his behalf. The young boy balked, immediately earning the Afghan’s ire. The furious Afghan used heavy doses of vile, abusive language and made threats for long enough that the older Pakistani gentleman occupying a neighbouring seat could no longer stomach all of this in silence. He confronted the Afghan, and placing his hand on his shoulder, pushed him back into his seat to defuse the physical confrontation between the Afghan and the young Pakistani boy. At this point, all hell broke loose and the drunk Afghan started shouting in what I can only refer to as broken NYC taxi cab english (yes, I am being derogatory), “I’m not gonna let you go… you old guy… you f***in bast*rd… You grab me from my neck… I’m gonna f*** you up”.

Hearing all this unfold, the flight attendants rushed to the scene and by force, moved the Afghan all the way to the front. This is how I saw him and learned about what was going on. Here, the crassness continued, but this time the Afghan reached deeper into the least cultured parts of his mind to include references to mothers and sisters. “These f***in low class Pakistanis. They sell their mother for dollar. I’m not gonna let him go. I’m gonna kill him. That old f***in guy. If it was American, its one thing, this low class Pakistani f***kin guy, how he touch me??”

Now, perhaps I should desist from making you any more uncomfortable. Let me wrap the tale up by telling you that all this abuse went on for a good hour and a half and during this time, the Afghan made at least 4 attempts to get up and rush to the back of the plane to confront the older gentleman. During this period he also proclaimed, “I am pathan you know.. khan you know… La illaha illa la Muhammad ar rasool illah. I am muslim alhamdolilllah. I not gonna let him go. I got ma pride.”

In Vino Veritas.

You can write this off as the equivalent of a drunken bar brawl. After all, people say all sorts of things when they are not in their senses. But I won’t write it off. Because in wine, there really is truth. Feelings that would be surpressed and dialogues that would have been spoken only in his mind, came out into the open and were verbalized. The alcohol only allows us to hear thoughts. It does not create them.

And herein lies the ugly truth.

Given the guy’s age, and the fact that he also loudly shouted out that he was going to catch a connection to Peshawar, one thinks him to belong to the generation that fled Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. He obviously lived most of his life in Pakistan because his own country was unfit for human habitation – not due to anything that Pakistan did, but because the communist party of Afghanistan comprised entirely of Afghans, born and bred, had invited the Soviets to enter and occupy their country.

It is said that sometimes when you help someone, the only gratitude you get is jealousy and ill-will. While I don’t want to generalize this sentiment, the point is, clearly this is what was on display here. And I’ve seen this before in the Afghan-Pakistan context. This malice toward Pakistan is alive and well in the hearts of many of the non-pakhtun and a substantial number of the pakhtun afghans who lived in Pakistan. Before you get into the Taliban and other post-Soviet politics, let me tell you, that is not the reason behind this anger. It existed before there was a Taliban.

Obviously, the fact that Pakistan – a poor country – was home to the largest number of refugees in the world and which to every extent possible allowed assimilation, allowed these “guests” to live on in the country, start businesses and move to cities such as Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi, was somehow lost upon my fellow traveller. Muslim brotherhood? Afghan hamaray bhai? Strategic depth? Think again.

The other uncomfortable truth brought out in this drunken tirade was the “I am pathan… I am muslim… I will kill him… I got ma pride.” line of thinking. Again, not to generalize, but let’s be honest. There is a segment amongst us that is all too willing to allow their inflated sense of pride to be injured by mere words or meaningless actions. And we are willing to take the most self-damaging measures to heal these wounds to our so-called pride. Whether the process of catharsis involves burning down shops on the Mall in Lahore in response to an idiot Dutchman’s ridiculous cartoons, whether it be murdering a sister’s or daughter’s beloved for the “ill-repute” any perfectly normal human demonstration of love is supposedly going to earn the family, or whether it be facing a jail term in Qatar for having threatened murder on a plane full of witnesses. What is this pride? Is it even justified? What have we done? What have we contributed to the world in the recent past that would make us so proud? Why is our pride more easily injured than that of any other race of humans on this planet? What the hell is going on? This pride will be our undoing. Zip it up, put it under lock and key and assume humility before it’s too late.

Then we have another aspect that deserves reflection. That of a drunk supposedly namazi proud “pathan” muslim reciting the kalma while simultaneously threatening an old man with murder. This is the same hypocrisy we saw in that now-famous YouTube video of the sickeningly oily TV mullah that has gathered such a following in recent years (I refer to the Aalim online character). It is the same hypocrisy that is on show when JUI-F and S and numerous mullah political parties comically trade loyalties and votes for seats and ministership portfolios. One can go on… from the drama that is the mullah moonsighting brigade, to the poison that is being spread in numerous well-funded seminaries, to the stashes of porn that have been uncovered in TTP camps and on and on and on. In general, I’ve found that the more overt and in your face someone is in the demonstration of his faith, the less likely that he is on the inside what he pretends to be on the outside. Mullah gee, thou dost protest too much. Know what I mean?

Any way, this is what happened around me today. And I thought I’d share with you what rushed through my mind as it was unfolding. I doubt that this post can be understood by someone who lacks the cultural context of the region. For those who would wish to spin this into the typical,  “Oh my God, how unsafe!” sort of fable, I refer you to the closest downtown bar in [pick-a-western-city]. Where there are human beings, there is muck and filth. But in this instance, I reflected on the filth and where it was coming from. I’d ask you to do the same. Perhaps there is hope yet for those who are willing to peer within? Aeivei’n roz shaitaan naal larda. Kaday nafs apnay nal lariya ee naieen. Ja ja warda mandir maseeta’n. Kaday dil apnay wich wariya ee naieen.

Share this:

Redefining Identity: A wonderful documentary about software and technology in Lahore, Pakistan

I just received a message from the folks over at FiveRivers who have produced this wonderful documentary on innovation & entrepreneurship in Pakistan. It’s really worth watching, and I love the underlying message: the notion that we can redefine our perceived identity with our hard work and achievements. I can certainly sign up for that, and I’m sure so would you!

Here’s a bit more about the documentary:

“Redefining Identity takes a look at the amazing entrepreneurship and creativity that is being unleashed in Pakistan, where young technologists are coming together to lead a very real revolution that has powerful social, economic and technological implications. In doing so, these young Pakistanis are also transforming Pakistan’s perception in the minds of millions of people all around the world who use their products and appreciate their creativity. This 10 minute film is a rare glimpse into the reality of today’s Pakistan. Anyone with an interest in technology and startups in general, or Pakistan specifically, will find it a very worthwhile watch.”

There are quite a few subtleties to catch in this video… listen for that line about not going by obviously assumed western names when fielding support calls. Sound familiar Plenty of other one liners embedded in here that make this a fairly engrossing and exciting watch. If you want to discuss the documentary, you are welcome to do so here, and also at the “Redefining Identity” facebook page, here.

If you are a software entrepreneur or involved in the tech industry in Pakistan, this video would be a great asset to share with partners, potential customers and others who might not have a clear view about what tech companies in Pakistan are truly like, and the quantum of innovation now being unleashed in Pakistan. I really see this film as a resource that everyone involved with tech in Pakistan should use actively, and hope there will be many more similar efforts in future.

Without further ado, here is the courtesy YouTube - be SURE to watch this in full screen mode - it’s definitely worth it:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhynv21jSkI

Share this:

Hello Reality! The KSE heads to a 3 1/2 month high despite tipsy anti-pakistan diatribes being pushed in the US media

With all the nonsense in the press since May 2, you would think the world was about to come to an end. But no. As usual, the NY Times and WaPo have about as much credibility on the subject of Pakistan as do the predictions of that nutcase  Denver based right-wing priest, Harold Camping, and his Christian Family Radio on the subject of the Earth’s longevity. And if a loud echoing, face-reddening slap could be delivered to such naysayers for the animal excrement one now finds plastered on the front pages of the Post and the Times, it was this: The Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan’s largest bourse, has closed on a 3 1/2 month high at 12,198.12 points. Forget the PM’s speech in Parliament and forget whatever Gen. Kiyani has to say. Let’s focus on reality and the facts on the ground. Let’s focus on what thousands of investors and business people who are connected to the core of this country and are clued in to tens of thousands of active projects actually think about the future.

The KSE has done exceedingly well in the past couple of years and we’ve covered its performance here at TechLahore quite often. But beyond the economics, it’s important to keep in mind what the KSE represents. Usually, whenever we cover the KSE’s movements we get the odd, “Oh, but what does this really mean?” kind of comment. So for the sake of clarity, here’s what it means: The investors and participants in the KSE are confident about their future, which means they are confident about the future of Pakistan. No one throws money into a stock exchange because they think their investment will tank. So other than the financial implications, the main point of interest for us is how optimistic Pakistani businessmen and investors are in their future. And why shouldn’t they be? Pakistan is the world’s seventh most populous state, with the world’s fifth largest army and as Christina Fair put it, a country that “simply has many asymmetric options” which means that no one in their right mind is about to cross any red-lines with us. Moreover, Pakistan’s exports continue to do well in the EU with the recent positive movement on tariffs, remittances are growing fast, are at an all-time historic high and there seems to be national consensus on the issue that the “AID” bluff is exactly that, a bluff. The aid – mostly REIMBURSEMENTS – that “prop” up the economy in the vivid imagination of certain ill-informed senators in a foreign country and myopic media people, are actually neither necessary nor desirable. This aid bullcrap is simply used, at this point, as a political lever with no measurable impact on the economy or development of the country. And on this subject, I think the universal message from Pakistan is, “Stuff it!”. Indeed, the government of Pakistan’s most populous state, the Punjab, has voluntarily cancelled aid agreements with the USAID. How’s that for leverage? The KSE seems to be echoing this very signal because precisely during the period when noises were being made close to the banks of the Potomac about using aid as a threat, the KSE was heading into the stratosphere as if to laugh in the face of this nonsense which is everything but connected to reality.

We’ll try to do a longer piece on where we see things headed in the near future, but until then, let’s keep our eye on the jewel of Karachi. KSE FTW!

Share this: