Microsoft’s Surface RT: Tablet or more of an Ultrabook?

Here I am back again after the longest absence I’ve clocked yet since this site was launched almost 6 years ago!

So how about that Microsoft Surface RT? I played around with it at the Microsoft Store and here are my initial thoughts:

Pros:

1) It’s pretty responsive. I like the very smooth and fluid UI and rapid touch response. There’s hardly much latency.

2) There’s plenty of refinement in the UI; I personally like just being able to start typing the name of the application I want to run to have it show up in a real-time search. Very useful for a short-cut way of navigating around the device.

3) I don’t necessarily like Metro for phone-sized screens, but with the Surface tablet, it looks pretty decent. There’s enough room for live tiles to provide useful information without the user feeling like screen real estate is being wasted.

4) The touch cover I don’t care for, but the type cover is amazing! The keyboard is as good as a Macbook Pro. I didn’t feel any slowdown as my fingers raced across the satisfying keys.

5) The apps provided are pretty good, including Internet Explorer. The mail app is not enterprise ready and may not have all the power features you would like, but pretty decent for a consumer tablet. Skydrive integration is excellent and possibly my favourite app so far! You can truly keep stuff in the cloud and get access to it in a jiffy. The online versions of Microsoft Office, topics for another future post, are phenomenal! Much better than Google docs in every way!

Cons:

1) The vertical orientation is awkward; the aspect ratio is just not right and I don’t see myself using this as a portrait mode magazine or ebook reader. A huge downside from my perspective.

2) Windows desktop legacy mode and no apps other than Office to run on it? I know some folks have criticized the inclusion of the desktop as the UI doesn’t adapt well to a small touch device, but if MSFT had to do this, it would have been best done by providing apps to justify the desktop. As of now, this makes no sense at all.

3) If the device can’t really be used in portrait mode, aren’t we really talking about a laptop here? The touch cover is present in every marketing image provided by Microsoft. Is this really a tablet? Or something closer to an Ultrabook? I am still not sure. Did I mention the portrait mode sucks?

4) There are very few apps. This is a problem now, because Windows Phone 7 has been around long enough. Microsoft has had 2+ years of Win 8 development time to use to convince major developers to port their applications to the new platform. Most are in a wait-and-see frame of mind. This is disconcerting, specially from a company that has built its empire on developer participation.

5) This is too expensive. $499 for the device, plus $130 for the type cover. You’re talking Ultrabook prices without the RAM or internal storage expandability. Hmm. Is this really worth it? It would make sense if I could hold it in portrait mode and not buy the keyboard at all. But I can’t.

Net-net, I wouldn’t buy the Surface as my only tablet. Really. I want to, but I just couldn’t. Microsoft needs to re-examine the aspect ratio fiasco in portrait mode and do a much better job convincing (bribing!) developers to port their apps to this device. I don’t think they have too much time to fix these issues before Surface RT is written off by its potential users.

Share this:

And no government can hide the reality of the world from its citizens any longer... (Image credit: prisonplanet.com)

The Government of Pakistan, through the Ministry of Information Technology recently placed ads in local newspapers asking for proposals to establish an internet content filtering system in the country. There have been lots of concerns recently that content which is not compatible with Pakistan’s “cultural norms” is being viewed and accessed. At the moment, Pakistan has a completely open and free access policy. You can get to any kind of content, at any time.

Internet filtering and censorship is not new, nor is it unique to Pakistan. In many European countries, certain websites are banned because they feature Aryan supremacist, racist or Nazi propaganda. Others are banned because they violate copyright laws specific to a country. In China, the “Great Firewall” is a legendary piece of internet infrastructure that appears to be ever present and ever watchful. In the UAE – Dubai included – pornographic websites are blocked, with a message informing the user that access to the destination website is curtailed due to its content not being in accordance with the culture of the UAE. As the Arab Spring has unfolded, we’ve discovered that Egypt and other Arab states have been implementing content filtering, blocking and eavesdropping. US companies like Bluecoat systems, in fact, have been providing the Syrian regime with content filtering and censorship technology.

It is important to point out that the Government of Pakistan is not going about this like Egypt did, in secret. They are announcing their intent and potential change in policy in the open media. Further, the content filtering proposal appears to be targeted squarely at pornographic content, not political speech or voices of dissent. And finally, there is a strong voice within the country which opposes the deployment of any such system of oversight or censorship. That said, why would the Ministry of Information even try to impose these limitations? There are so many ways in which people can easily get around these systems, that the investment made in preventing access often simply goes down the toilet. Not to mention, that efforts to block such access will usually end up getting negative press, people will question the intentions of the government vociferously and net-net, the Government and people will be losers in this entire process.

I think the GoP needs to realize that one of Pakistan’s strengths is an atmosphere of openness and freedom with regard to the blogosphere, the internet, television media and print media. Pakistan is way ahead of other developing countries in having cultivated and promoted this freedom. It is no longer possible for any person in power, or even any institution (yes, any) to prevent people from twittering, facebooking, blogging, skyping, texting and IM’ing opinions and content – regardless of what that is. Any attempt to get in the way of people’s opinions – even if they are unpleasant to some - is doomed to failure.

Share this:

The magical Prof. Rosling forecasts health and prosperity for the developing world

For many hundreds of years, the West has symbolized development, prosperity and riches, while the rest of the world – the horrendously named, “Third World” in particular – has been synonymous with backwardness, disease and hunger. Let us, for the moment, forget that much of this disparity was actually a result of exploitation by colonialists from the West, and let us also ignore the fact that to this day, all too frequently, Western influence is exerted in most developing countries to the detriment of the local society. Despite the miserable history behind the exploitative abuse of the Rest of the World, the good news is that in the 21st century almost all countries will catch up with the wellness, HDI and wealth indicators of the West.

We’ve covered the case of Pakistan numerous times in the past. As the seventh largest country in the world, blessed with trillions of dollars of natural resources, there is no question that Pakistan will emerge as a power on the global stage. This will happen despite shortcomings in political leadership. The fundamental trends propelling Pakistan toward a developed future are far more powerful and basic than temporary considerations such as who occupies the Prime Minister’s house in a given term. 

For much of the rest of the world, while perhaps not to the same extent as Pakistan, development and a general uplift of HDI indicators is nonetheless inevitable. How is this happening? Is it because of increased mobility between populations? Better communication? The democratization of technology? The rise of alternate power centers like China, which have very different goals than the West? The growing sense of self-identity and desire for freedom in erstwhile underpopulated and easily exploited resource rich countries? Perhaps the answer is “all of the above”.

Prof. Hans Rosling, statistician, friend to the Third World, TED fellow and marvelous story teller, shows us how this empowerment is unfolding and when China, as a reference point, will reach the per-capita GDP of the US. While China’s rise is praise worthy and phenomenal, the reality is that as long as we are able to avoid major wars, over the medium-term, much of the world will achieve high standards of living and wealth. Development and prosperity can no longer remain the exclusive domain of the post-colonial West. Good news all around. And here it is from Prof. Rosling himself:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjVHvC9EeB4

Share this:

Will Newt Gingrich's dream of a moon base by 2020 come true? Will it be American or Chinese? (Image credit: Dynamic Science)

The Republican primaries have certainly ejected a lot of muck into the political atmosphere, much like a large, destructive asteroid would throw up debris and dust for miles if it were to strike terra firma. For what is to follow, the space analogy seems particularly appropriate. Mr. Gingrich, who is hoping to unseat Mitt Romney as the Republican favourite, recently visited Florida, home of the NASA Shuttle Program, where he declared that by the end of his second term, he would establish a permanent US base on the Moon. Further, once there is a large enough number of people occupying such a Moon base complex, the Moon could then be “ceded” to the US as its 51st state.

Ridiculous or not, you be the judge of that. Perhaps today it is, but maybe in 20 or 50 years it won’t be. The fact that the major powers will rekindle a space race is almost a certain proposition. China has announced that it will be launching a large number of satellites in the next 2 years and its plans for a permanent space station have also been made public. Private companies, such as SpaceX in the US, have been working diligently on making launches less expensive. There will certainly be a push to tap into the vast riches of space at some point in the not too distant future. Whether it will be as soon as Newt promises, or whether private enterprise will even be the catalyst, remains to be seen.

Neil DeGrasse Tyson, scientist and prominent TV personality, was interviewed by MSNBC on just this subject. Dr. Tyson believes that it is not for private enterprise, but for government to lead the way back to the moon and back into deep space. At the end of the day, Newt and his Republican comrades cannot expect government to be cut back and NASA budgets to shrink, while also predicting bold possibilities that require R&D funding and government investments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rQn37WTjc0

Do you think Newt is on to something? Or is he just on something? Do you agree with Dr. Tyson? Take a look at the interview video and join us in the comments section.

Share this:

Lots of stuff will happen in 2012, but the world will not end. Sorry Mayans! (Image credit: TheAtlanticWire)

2012 is going to be a very interesting year. Elections are coming up in two very important countries, Pakistan (in early 2013) and the United States (2012). The US’ confrontation with Iran has both countries making threats and accusations and heading in a direction that seems to be escalatory. Further, the US has retreated from Iraq and violence there seems to be at an upswing. As someone said, the US-Iraq war is over. Iran won. Then, we also have the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan which has led to much drama and desperation on the part of the ISAF and NATO forces; as we predicted last year, the US is now openly saying that the Taliban are not a US enemy, the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, has been removed from the FBI’s most wanted list and US diplomats are now negotiating with the Taliban with no preconditions. In that the Taliban have not laid down their weapons and continue to control over 75% of Afghan territory, these negotiations appear to be more about NATO giving in to the Taliban position and figuring out how to withdraw in haste than the opposite.

And that’s just the geo-strategic picture. Lots of exciting technology is going to be introduced also this year, and all eyes are on Europe and America as the economic troubles enter their fifth year. Will this finally be the bottom and will we start heading in the right direction? I thought this would have happened in 2011, but I was wrong. So, what happens in 2012? Read on to find out.

Political and Geo-strategic Predictions

1. The PPP government in Pakistan will not be removed. They may choose to go for early elections once the Senate elections are completed, but no other force (Army, PTI etc.) will compel them to leave office. This will be good as it sets the tone for a long running democratic dispensation which self-adjusts to find a workable solution to governance in Pakistan.

2. The PPP will pull off a successful senate election, strengthening the President.

3. Memogate will not lead to Asif Zardari’s resignation.

4. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.

5. Romney will come pretty close to removing Obama, but Obama will scrape through. Personally, with all of Obama’s broken promises and false mantras of change, we would rather Romney win in his stead, not because we support Romney, but simply because we feel there should be some accountability for such a disastrous and damaging run in office.

6. The PTI will emerge as a political force post the next election, but nowhere near the numbers being claimed by Imran Khan who has suggested that it will be a Tsunami and will take an outright majority. Not even close.

7. 2012 will mark Pakistan’s strategic goodbye to America. There is still lots of discussion about whether regular business-as-usual relations between Pakistan and the US will resume, but we don’t think they will in the foreseeable future. In fact, the NATO massacre of Pakistani troops precipitated what had to happen anyway. Pakistan has simply had enough of the US pushing it around and asking for “more” when the US themselves, along with all their other allies, have done far less than Pakistan in prosecuting the WoT. The absolutely false claims of $20B in “aid”, which have been made repeatedly, have done nothing other than simply insult, irritate and anger both the Pakistani establishment and its populace. First off, it’s not as if this $20B was the figure of assistance for any single year. This paltry sum, which pales in comparison to the $600+B annual US defence budget, and the $1T+ spent on the lost war in Afghanistan, covers TEN years of supposed (and imaginary) assistance to Pakistan. Second, $20B have not actually been transferred, so the figure itself is nonsense. Third, the bulk of the money actually dispensed by the US has been for reimbursements, i.e. money ALREADY SPENT by Pakistan which the US OWES it. Fourth, the rest of this money has been spent through US agencies, contractors and mostly, on US goods. This means the effective value of every $1 spent by US AID is probably less than 25c of benefit to Pakistan. With the hefty, fees due to overpaid American consultants and vendors along with the unnecessary spending on transportation, very little actual benefit is accrued. In a nutshell, the real value of all US “AID” to Pakistan stands probably at 2-3% of the $80+Billion Pakistan has lost in the WoT. To top off the monetary exploitation, Pakistan has been bullied, the US press and media have been used as a veritable weapon in an unrelenting disinformation war against Pakistan and Pakistan’s interests (e.g. the IP(C) pipeline with Iran), on fundamental issues unrelated to the US or the WoT, have been repeatedly threatened. This simply cannot go on. We also believe that the death of this last US-Pakistan alliance will lead to Pakistan’s migration into the Asian camp, where it will work increasingly in concert with Russia and China in future, and will never again (at least for the next 30-50 years) consider an alliance with America.

8. Despite rumours, Gen. Pasha and Gen. Kiyani will not secure further extensions.

9. The bluster doesn’t past muster. The US will not attack Iran in 2012.

Technology Predictions

1. Windows 8 will be a significant force this year. It will rekindle interest in Windows as a consumer OS as a large number of tablets and phones will support it. 2012 is when Microsoft will really launch its counterattack against Apple, but unlike in the past, this will not be based on stealing marketshare from the iPhone, but grabbing as much interest from non-Smartphone and Blackberry users as possible. Windows Phone applications will touch 100,000 by the end of the year.

2. Microsoft will buy Nokia’s Smartphone division.

3. RIM had a terrible year, but the new Blackberry 10 products will begin to stop the bleeding. RIM still provides the most secure solution, and it is generating north of $5B in revenue every quarter, so it is a force to be reckoned with. There will be a lot of discussion around a RIM acquisition in 2012, but it will not happen.

4. Android will continue to grow at the expense of the iPhone and most of all, Symbian and RIM. In the end, though, we don’t quite understand what Android does for Google. In many respects, the fundamental desire Google had of owning the endpoint to ensure that access to its services would be smooth and uninterrupted, seems premised on the assumption that non-Google OSs somehow wouldn’t allow access (or at least, fair, open access) to Google. I am not sure this makes much sense, since Google services are available and used on all non-Android OSs. Either way, Android is definitely going to grow market share in 2012, probably by another 5-10 points.

5. Ultrabooks are going to be BIG this year. They will also, in concert with Windows 8, lead a PC renaissance which should stem Apple’s growth on the PC/Laptop side of the house. My gut tells me that Apple’s desktop/laptop marketshare will grow at 60-70% the rate at which it grew in 2011. Ultrabooks will put a dent…

6. The next iPad will come out with a) 2-3MP display resolution b) reduced entry level model price c) Siri integration d) dual core 1.2+Ghz processor. However, momentum for non iPad tablets will continue, especially with the advent of Windows 8 slabs. By the end of 2012, less than half of all tablets sold will be Apple iPads.

Financial Predictions

1. The KSE will post 10% growth this year. First, as explained below, the favourable USD-Rs. exchange ratio will make Pakistani stocks cheaper for foreign investors, and second, the continued reduction of WoT related violence inside the country will bring the stability necessary for growth in investor confidence. If it weren’t for 2012 being the run-up to an election and numerous political events punctuating the year (Musharraf’s return, court proceedings, PTI “jalsas”, Senate elections, pre-election politics and so on), this number would have been higher. In part, growth will also be helped by the beginnings of a global recovery in 2012.

2. The Pakistani Rs. will touch an exchange rate of Rs. 95 to $1 USD during the year. It may go as high as Rs. 100, but 95 is within reason. Some repayments to the IMF are coming up which will pressure the foreign reserve. We’ll get through it without all that much trouble, but a rise in the exchange rate can be safely assumed.

3. The Dow will show modest growth, around 5% for the year. The early part of 2012 will be marked with some optimism, with a dip hitting the middle of the year. The last few months of the year will show a recovery powered by fundamental improvements in economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, and some control over federal spending finally kicking in. The huge amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets also need to be spent at some stage and if 2012 looks safe, CFOs will let go of the purse strings, kicking off M&A and spurring some market growth.

4. Pakistan’s GDP will grow at about 4% during 2012.

5. There will be a reduction in the unemployment rate in the US, probably by about .3-.5%, ending at about 8.2% or so in December 2012.

6. Netsol touched a peak in 2011 and then fell to the ground in terms of stock value. 2012 will see improvement, but a peak of $1 is probably optimistic. Nonetheless, some money can be made on Netsol if it is bought around 40c and sold when it approaches 60-65c during 2012.

[Techlahore takes no responsibility for any financial projections or stock predictions. We are not advocating the purchase or sale of any security and are providing our opinions purely for general interest purposes. The reader assumes all responsibility for all his/her financial decisions, including the sale or purchase of any security.]

Share this:

MIT's famed dome... coming to a PC, laptop or tablet near you! (Image credit: Bustachange.com)

Someday, someone in an appropriately empowered government position in Pakistan needs to take a bold step forward and break through the bureaucracy and red tape government is despised for. There are so many incredibly high value, low cost initiatives to take up in areas as diverse as agriculture, education, energy and information technology that the shortage is not one of ideas, but simply that of initiative and vision.

Here at TechLahore, we’ve discussed some of these ideas before. Today, an announcement made by MIT compels us to talk of another…

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as one of the world’s foremost technology and engineering schools, needs no introduction. It is nothing less than one of America’s greatest strategic assets. MIT has produced graduates who have gone on to conduct pioneering research in defence, space technology, IT, material sciences, genetics and numerous other areas, advancing the state of the art for their country and the world at large. By some estimates, MIT graduates have contributed almost one trillion dollars worth of market capitalization to the US bourses. But as you may have heard, it’s not easy to get into MIT. Seats are limited, competition is tough and most of all, it’s expensive and remote for most of the citizens of the world. But what if the MIT experience could be bottled up and shipped across the internet to anyone who wanted to benefit from it? While it wouldn’t be exactly akin to attending classes at MIT physically – certainly the environment and some measure of interactivity would be lacking – it would, nonetheless, be a giant step forward.

MIT took this very step, in fact, some years ago, by launching their OpenCourseWare initiative. In a variety of formats, ranging from audio, slides to fully taped video lectures, a select group of courses were put online for anyone in the world to access without charge. You can learn more about OCW by visiting this MIT website. Now, MIT is taking this program to the next level. M.I.T.x as the new online learning initiative will be called, will expand the amount of content available and will also offer completion certificates to candidates who test well at the end of the self-paced “term”. This certificate will not be an MIT degree, nor will it bear the name of MIT, but will be granted by a non-profit set-up specifically for this purpose as an MIT affiliate. Nice as that might be, certificates and degrees are essentially pieces of paper. The real value is in the learning process and the acquired knowledge. Exposing oneself to a well designed, cutting edge curriculum, the added benefit of virtual presence in MIT classrooms through the magic of internet video, interaction with other learners via online discussion boards and finally, being “tested” without spending a single cent or leaving the comfort of home, is truly a revolutionary development!

Can this program be embraced by the Provincial or Federal governments in Pakistan? Can we deliver the MIT curriculum in classrooms at our institutions and use local teachers in a supportive role, making up for any loss of interactivity? Can we launch programs where, like the 100,000 free laptop distribution made by the Gov. of the Punjab, laptops and tablets can be gifted to any student that shows a completion certificate for some number of MIT engineering classes? Could we augment our virtual university curricula with this MIT content? What about providing free DVDs with all of this content to anyone in Pakistan who is interested and may not yet have the broadband connection to easily access the video component? How about selecting a few of the MIT freshmen courses and broadcasting them on TV – not only to teach, but also to spread awareness about this great resource? How about translating the videos into Urdu and even regional languages? There’s so much that can be done with this content… and with not much investment!

But with that said, even if the Government, as usual, doesn’t do anything, you and I can at least spread awareness about this great resource. To the extent we interact with learners, college students, those who are curious about science and engineering, folks that are not happy with the quality of education they might be receiving at a local institution – anyone with an interest – we can tell them about this resource. We can share MIT OCW videos with our friends on Facebook so they know this resource exists and can tell others. We can, when we have a few moments to spare, invest an hour or two to perhaps translate a video in Urdu. Anything we can do to spread news of this great resource and enhance its value will be of tremendous benefit to Pakistan.

This is a great step towards democratizing access to the world’s best education. And it’s not the only earth shattering, historically unparalleled change we’re seeing enabled through IT. It’s practically a new world out there, with more potential than has been available at any time in human history. Soon, location, geography and to a great extent – money – will no longer matter in very important ways. And with all of this magnificent change unfolding around us, it’s our job to go out and make something of these fabulous new opportunities. Let’s make it happen!

Share this:

TechLahore's 2011 predictions turned out to be the least accurate EVER! Hmph!

We’ve been publishing since 2007 and TechLahore is hence not exactly a “new” blog. As institutions age, they accrue tradition, and TechLahore is no different. Our December evaluations of the past year’s predictions have been happening now for the past several years. In January, we’ll follow-up with a new set of predictions for 2012.

Here are the past evaluations, in case you’re interested:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010
2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009
3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

So, without further ado, let’s see how we fared this year:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

Spot on. The parliament is here and if the Army Chief’s recent statements are to be believed, no coup is in the offing.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

The Congress government has become a symbol of inefficiency and corruption in India. India has actually fallen further on the Transparency corruption index. Manmohan has lost the Mr. Clean image for sure. I’ll claim full credit here.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Despite the fact that the Republicans were busy ripping each other apart, the Congress being a veritable ball and chain around the Presidency has resulted in a low approval rating. We said we’d use the Rasmussen Reports as our measure, and as per the latest poll in December 2011, Obama is still roughly where he started the year (-13).

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

According to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, the number of deaths in 2011 fell by almost 40%! This was good news for Pakistanis, and in fact, the last half of the year saw an almost complete halt in terror attacks throughout the country. The few instances that did occur were limited to checkposts near or in the FATA areas.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

NATO has done almost nothing against the Taliban in Afghanistan. A couple of half-hearted thrusts here and there, with no real resolve for meeting any tangible goals. They have also talked about allowing the Taliban to setup an office in a Gulf state and have been engaged with negotiations with the so-called “enemy”. In fact, the only military action NATO engaged in this past year which made waves was an attack on two Pakistani checkposts, resulting in the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani soldiers. Viz the Taliban, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is pretty much finished. What remains is a negotiated settlement that allows the US room to depart without being chased.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

The number of drone strikes this year was significantly less than last year. Here is the data.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Hear hear! Android is now the defacto King of the mobile OSs. Android now accounts for 53% of smartphone shipments. I had said the US market share for Android will increase to 33%, and in reality, according to Nielsen it has gone past 42%. So I’ll take this one…

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Yes and yes. Tablets were THE story of the year and non Apple tablets are now coming out the wazoo. As I had predicted, not only did the iPad’s market share fall, it fell a bit faster than I had predicted. According to IDC, it stands at 68% going into the holidays.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Apps grew much faster than even I had predicted. Apple announced that there are 500,000 iOS apps. Android stands at 250,000 apps. And Microsoft Phone7 is at 25,000. Blackberry hasn’t grown as fast, but net-net, the prediction I made of the total number of mobile apps exceeding 700,000 has come true. We are actually probably closer to a million than 750,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Measured in almost every way, 2011 was a great year for Pakistani software. At APICTA, Pakistanis won more awards than ever before. Whereas 2010 saw one Pakistani mobile app make it to World #1, in 2011 there were two more. And the growth we are seeing has made many experts very hopeful. Current estimates suggest that we will exceed $10B by 2020.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

I felt a shudder when I read that part about the new iPhone not being particularly “innovative”. Look at the new device. It wasn’t even a significant enough upgrade to merit the iPhone “5″ moniker. Apple stuck with 4S. And rightly so. The antenna issue is fixed, and other than the bundling of Siri, which was available as a free download for older iPhones prior to Apple’s acquisition of the company, there isn’t much to write home about. Android has left the iPhone in the proverbial dust. Yes, the iPhone is very much a market leader from an ease of use and proliferation of apps perspective, but Android phones now have faster radios, better screens, faster processors, more storage, better cameras and pretty much everything else.

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Windows 8 not only provides better visualization, it has an entirely reinvented Metro based UI for tablets. It does in fact standardize 64 bit and yes, there isn’t going to be a 2011 release. However, as predicted the CTP was launched this year. I’ll take this one… I was even right about it being an honest to goodness PC OS – one click and you’re back to the traditional Windows desktop.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Cloud has overtaken the IT airwaves and while Virtualization remains a persistent meme, it is getting less airplay because it is becoming part of the “assumed” stack of capabilities. PaaS infrastructure has definitely grown, along with IaaS ala Amazon. Inexpensive PCs and tablets have been a core IT story throughout 2011, whether it be the Indian Akaash tablet, the Ainovo novo 7, the Amazon Kindle Fire or the about to be released Raspberry Pi. It’s all about sub-hundred dollar price points… So now let’s look at my VMware stock price prediction. I said there won’t be a huge increase because virtualization’s cool-factor will start to subside, but it won’t be significant enough to warrant a big price drop. Well, VMware stands at around $84 right now. A little less than last year, but just a little, as predicted.

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Wrong. Wateen is around. Crippled and in need of direction. But around.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Wrong. Netsol didn’t have a good year. I was right that it would close about $2.25, because it touched $2.39 in February. But it’s been a slide since then. So even though I was half right at least about the annual high, I won’t take this one.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

Wrong. GDP was actually 2.37%, below what I had expected. Shucks.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

Wrong. The KSE, along with world markets, declined. There was a high around 12,700 in January 2011, but the market trended southward given everything that has happened in the world from an economic standpoint this year. It ended the year about 4% in the red.

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Half right. The Dow went up by about 6%, but the Nasdaq declined by slightly less than 2%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

Absolutely spot on. In Jan, unemployment was at 9%. By Nov 2011 it had declined by .4% to 8.6%.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

Wrong. While the housing market does appear to be turning around, it didn’t happen in 2011. There was probably a roughly 3% decline in average home prices across the US.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

That’s just how it happened. Didn’t touch Rs. 100 to the dollar, but we’re at 90. So that does translate into a little over 5% weakening through the year.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

This one is really hard to call. I have done a few informal tests with a few plots throughout the city and while there hasn’t been a decline, it’s not clear to me whether the asking price is something that is attracting buyers readily. I just don’t have enough data on this one to make a call. If you look at the lahorerealestate.com data for plots in Defence etc. the prices have risen just slightly.

So, where did we end up? 15 right (I’ll claim half credit for a couple) and 7 wrong. I think that might be the worst I’ve ever done. Most of where I fell short had to do with the economy in the US and Pakistan. Essentially, I was expecting a faster recovery than what has materialized. So what do I think will happen in 2012? Well, stay tuned for that post in January! Till then, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Share this:

The best startup ideas from 2011 (Image credit: Blogsaays.com)

Rafe Needleman at C|net just published an interesting piece on the best startup ideas from 2011. Net-net, he says the following trends made it big through a variety of startups:

1) A focus on bringing technology to the physical world: Products that reach outside the digital realm and enable interactions with the physical world in interesting ways. Augmented reality anyone? Location awareness to tie the information experience with the physical? What about devices like medical monitors and other real world sensors that augment the digital experience?

2) Excellent design: This one is a no brainer. If Apple and Steve Jobs taught us anything it is that well designed trumps not well designed even if the more aesthetically appealing product lags behind on speeds and feeds. In 2012, we remain excited to see how some of Apple’s design philosophy gets “embraced and extended” with PC Ultrabooks. But Rafe’s point is not just about computer hardware. He makes a broader and completely accurate point about design now being super important for the success of a product – hardware or software.

3) Mining data: Both in the consumer and enterprise worlds, data is growing at unfathomable rates. On the consumer end, we have things like photographs, notes, documents, music and videos all moving into the cloud, needing to be searched and organized. And on the business side we have ever-increasing digitization of records and transactions, a larger number of surveillance cameras providing higher quality digital footage than ever before, automated supply chains, enterprise application integration, ERP implementations moving down the chain and into the cloud and so on. There is LOTS of opportunity to mine data and make sense of it.

4) Platforms: True, the platform concept is a tough sell as either a new idea or something that too many people can get off the ground. But if you can build a platform and make it succesful by developing a consumption and supply ecosystem around it, it sure as heck makes for a killer business model with lots of inherent barriers to competitive entry. Facebook, after all, is not necessarily the finest implementation of a social network – just the most powerful and adopted platform of all social networking properties. That’s why Google and others can’t unseat it so easily. Building platforms is IN fo’ sho’.

5) Putting people/consumers in touch with each other: A central theme in the information revolution is breaking down barriers to communication. Theoretically, the Internet puts everyone on earth in touch with any other fellow earthling. In reality, the contact needs to be brokered within a particular context (i.e. education, social networking, commerce and so on). Properties that put people in touch with others and create some value from that contact – whether by enabling consumer to consumer commerce, or learner to learner education – are hot.

What do you think are some additional hot idea memes that took off in 2011? What do you think will stay hot through 2012? We’d love to hear your views.

For more on this, directly from the horse’s mouth, visit C|Net.

Share this:

Whacksy Taxi is fun, well designed and another entrant in a growing line of successful apps made in Pakistan

Mindstorm Studios is a Lahore based gaming studio which rose to fame a couple of years ago with their brilliant Cricketing title for the PC, called “Cricket Revolution”. Their game, which we covered here at TechLahore, was so detailed and well crafted that they scored a contract with the International Cricket Council (ICC) to develop the official World Cup 2011 title. After these wins, Mindstorm decided to diversify beyond sports oriented games and launched some casual gaming apps for the Android and iOS platforms. Their current best seller is a well designed, fun to play title called “Whacksy Taxi”. This is a Breakout style game which plays at a dizzyingly fast pace and takes the gamer through a tour of various US cities, trying to avoid congested traffic in three lanes.

Here’s a video review by the popular gaming site, AppSpy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKmkDlnBr-c

For more information on Mindstorm and their other exciting gaming titles, visit their website here.

Share this:

Hazardous Highway for Android by Pepper.pk has clocked more than 50,000 downloads in under 30 days

After their numerous BlackBerry successes, Pepper.Pk is now in the process of scoring another hit with their Android game, “Hazardous Highway“. The app just won a “Best App Award” from the Android review site, BestAppsMarket, and installs are rocketing. Here’s the install graph from the Android marketplace, which shows adoption over the past month, since the app was released, and presents a very pretty picture:

The download graph from the Android Marketplace shows that adoption has hit the "knee of the curve"

In response to Pepper.pk’s previous mobile application successes, they got a lot of feedback and requests to start developing more aggressively for the Android platform. Hazardous Highway is one of about a half dozen applications they currently sell on the Android marketplace. In comparison to their overall portfolio of 150+ applications, this is not all that significant, but hopefully over time, they’ll build out their Android portfolio further.

Share this: